let's start with a chart of the SPYs, because a close examination of price movements indicates some extreme negativity.
a.) Prices rally throughout the day, but sell-off going into the close.
b.) Prices gap down slightly at the open, but also sell-off late in the day.
c.) Prices gap down hard at the open and never come close to recovering.
d.) prices gap higher at the open, but then trend down for the entire trading day
e.) Price gap lower at the open and then sell-off into the close
f.) Prices gap lower at the open, rally but then sell-off
g.) Prices formed a rounding pattern and again sold-off at the end of the day.
A big issue with the last 10 days of trading is no one wants to hold a position overnight. That tells us that traders are extremely nervous about the overnight news cycle.
Gold is in an interesting position. It originally caught a safety bid a little over a week ago, but has since sold off to just below the upward sloping trend line (a). Also note the two short-term trend lines (the 10 and 20 day EMA) have moved lower, indicating short-term negativity. Finally, the volume trend (c) appears that Gold had a selling climax over the last few weeks. Commodities in general have been hit hard over the last few weeks as the dollar has strengthened and treasuries have risen.
The main point with the dollar market is prices are now below one of the upward sloping trendlines.
Like the SPYs, the oil market is also extremely negative right now.
a.) Prices sell-off mid day and can't rebound.
b.) Prices open lower and form a rounding pattern throughout the trading day
c.) Prices gap lower at the open and then sell-off throughout the day
d.) Prices gap lower at the open and attempt a rebound that has little to no momentum
e.) Prices gap higher at the open but then fall for the entire trading day.
f.) Prices have consolidated for the last three days
The primary beneficiary of this trend is the long-end of the Treasury market, which is in a clear uptrend.
