First of all, apologies that I didn't get around to posting this last week. Sometimes real life intervenes, and last week it did. The monthly data last week almost univerally stunk, including the first decline in the LEI in over a year. This week there was evidence of continued recovery, but also more evidence that the pace of recovery may be slowing and possibly even stalling in some sectors. That the Chicago PMI's employment index fell all the way into contraction is particularly unwelcome news, suggesting that manufacturers are reacting to the Euro meltdown by slamming on the brakes once again.
Aside from that, durable goods orders was up 2.9% and nondefense capital goods orders, a leading indicator, were up 9.2%. This series is very noisy, and Boeing's airliner sales play a uniquely strong role. Consumer sentiment also increased, to levels not seen since before the recession. Personal spending was flat, but personal income increased a strong 0.4%, giving a slight boost to real income as well since prices declined slightly in April.
Turning to the weekly indicators:
The ICSC reported that year over year sales were up 1.3% from last year for the week ending May 22nd. They were down -0.8% from the previous week. Last week YoY sales were up 2.9% and down -2.5% from the week before. As we are in between shopping seasons, weekly declines are not a surprise, but the health of the consumer reacting to the latest financial scare is an important item to watch.
Shoppertrak did not report this week, but last week reported a very good 6.5% increase YoY.
The price of Gas fell from its high of $2.90 two weeks ago to $2.79 this week. The 4 week average of usage last week was 9.20M gallons vs. 9.05M. The pice of Oil, which was down as low as $67 earlier this week, is back up near $75.
The BLS reported 460,000 new jobless claims last week, after a high reading of 474,000 last week. Last week's reading is of particular concern, since it suggests this aspect of recovery is stalling. Unfortunately we have no way of knowing from what sector this continued elevated level of layoffs is coming from.
The American Staffing Association's weekly index of temporary employment again increased, up 0.65%.
Rail traffic remains up from last year, but its comparative increase has stalled for three weeks now, indicating at least a pause in the strength of the recovery.
Daily treasury receipts continue their upswing compared with last year. Through May 29, 2010, $116.6B had been collected vs. $114.1 a year ago, up 2.3% vs. 18 reporting days into May of last year.
Everybody have a happy and safe Memorial Day weekend.
