This morning's release of Housing Permits and Starts is cause for a big sigh of relief. Permits, which had dropped from 575,000 in September (their high water mark for the year) to 552,000 in October, rebounded to 584,000 in November. Similarly, Starts, which also plummeted from 592,000 to 529,000 in October, rebounded to 574,000.
Aside from confirming that October's nasty surprise was a one-off event linked to the expiration of the $8000 housing credit program, this rebound also means that the fundamental increase in the Leading Economic Indicators has not been disturbed. Earlier I estimated that October revisions plus November indicators would probably net ~+0.3. That remains true. Since I believe October may get revised down ~0.4, this means that October's LEI may be revised to -0.1 -- but on the other hand, November's LEI will probably come in at ~+0.7.
