Friday, May 29, 2009

Are Durable Goods Orders Bottoming?

From the Census Bureau:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in April increased $3.0 billion or 1.9 percent to $161.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the second increase in the last three months and followed a 2.1 percent March decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders also increased 1.0 percent.


Granted -- other parts of the report are less rosy.

-- Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, down nine consecutive months, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $174.2 billion.

-- Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in April, down seven consecutive months, decreased $8.9 billion or 1.2 percent to $748.9 billion.

In other words -- we have a long way to go before we're back to normal. But consider the following charts:



Is this a bottom in the month to month chart?


Is this a bottom in the year over year numbers?



This chart better shows the possible bottoming in the year over year numbers.

I want to caution: these are preliminary numbers. BUT, they're still pretty good.