Notice on this 1 year chart that while bond prices were at incredibly high levels at the beginning of the year they have since come down. Prices are still over the 200 day SMA indicating a bull market, however.
Prices have been consolidating in a triangle consolidation pattern since the beginning of February. However, the SMAs are now giving a different picture. The 50 and 10 day SMA are moving lower while the 20 day is moving higher. Prices are tied together with the 10 and 20 day SMA indicating a lack of direction.
From a fundamental perspective there are two macro-situations competing right now. Pulling prices lower is the massive supply of treasury bonds coming to market over the next 9-12 months. However, keeping prices higher is the safety play which will continue to long as the stock market continues to move lower.
