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My main issue with the yearly chart is the conclusion that prices have formed a triangle consolidation pattern. I am not a fan of triangles that have such extreme price movements. Notice the big drop in late November. The price established at that level is a statistical outlier. I am personally not comfortable with using that as the basis for a triangle pattern. However, it is a price established on the chart so some may want to use it
The second issue I have with it is the fundamental background right now. I'm not sure the news is such that a final consolidation is in order. Fourth quarter earnings are a mess, the financial sector is as well, Washington is, well a mess ... you get the idea. I don't see an news that indicates we're near a bottom right now. I should add that I expect the economy to be at neutral (0% growth) by the end of the year. But I don't see any fundamental events that indicate we're at that point yet.
Notice the following on the EMA charts
-- Since the beginning of the year prices have moved lower and then higher. Combine this with the direction of all the EMAs and we have a market that is going lower
-- All the EMAs are moving lower
-- The shorter EMAs are below the longer EMAs
-- Prices moved through the lower two EMAs in the last two trading days of last week. Volume was higher on Friday than Thursday
Notice the following on the SMA chart
-- All the SMAs are moving lower
-- The 20 day SMA just moved below the 50 day SMA
-- Prices are below all the SMAs
On the MACD chart, notice the MACD is at high levels. However, the signal line may be moving into a buy signal.
