Thursday, July 3, 2008

Thursday Oil Market Round-Up

First, sorry about missing the market recap yesterday. I had a ton of things come up that kept me from blogging.

Now, onto the charts.



This is a weekly chart that I use yesterday to demonstrate US car companies are run by idiots. However, it's important to remember we're in the middle of a multi-year bull run in the oil market. In short, this didn't just start; it's been going on for some time.



On the shorter weekly chart, notice the market has been in a rally since he beginning of 2007. The market has continually moved through resistance areas to make new highs and has consolidated gains at various times. Also note that prices are above all the SMAs and all the SMAs are moving higher. In short, this is a great example of a bullish chart.



On the daily chart, notice we have the exact same thing -- upward moving prices that are continually moving through areas of resistance to make new highs. Prices are also consolidating gains. Finally, prices are above all the SMAs and all the SMAs are moving higher. In short, this is also a great example of a bullish chart.



On the P&F chart, notice oil has continually made news highs. Again -- this chart is a great example of a bull market chart.

Let's look at gas at the retail level:

After a one-week respite, the U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline increased to a new record high, moving up 1.6 cents to 409.5 cents per gallon. Prices rose throughout the country with the exception of the West Coast where the price dipped a bit. On the East Coast, the price went up a cent to 405.7 cents per gallon. In the Midwest, the increase of 3.5 cents was the largest of any region and pushed the price above $4 for the first time, to 403.1 cents per gallon. The Gulf Coast price remained the lowest of any region and was the only one under $4 at 392.8 cents per gallon, an increase of 0.9 cent. The Rocky Mountain price rose 3.2 cents to 403.4 cents per gallon. Although the price on the West Coast fell, the drop was only four-tenths of a cent to 445.6 cents per gallon. The average in California also declined somewhat, going down 1.2 cents to 457.3 cents per gallon.


However, it's not all bad:



Prices have at least leveled out somewhat over the last few weeks.

However,



Both oil and



Gas stocks are at low levels, adding further upward pressure on prices.

Short version: there isn't any reason to think the bull market will end anytime soon.