- by New Deal democrat
The JOLTS survey, which decomposes the employment market into openings, hires, quits, and layoffs, was reported this morning for April. In 2024 the data were most consistent with a “soft landing,” but the actions of the new Administration, especially on trade, have exacerbated the fear that this might transform into a “hard” landing, a/k/a a recession.
In April the news was mixed.
Let’s start with job openings, hires, and quits all normed to 100 as of just before the pandemic:
Openings, which are “soft” data and have generally uptrended going all the way back to the turn of the Millennium, have remained above their pre-pandemic levels, and this month improved by 391,000 to 7.391 million. Hires also increased by 169,000 to 5.573 million, but remain below their pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile quits declined another -150,000 to 3.194 million, significantly below their pre-pandemic levels, but above their level through much of last year.
Focusing on the past 12 months of data continues to show stabilization - a plus sign for the continuation of the “soft landing” scenario:
Several components are slight leading indicators for jobless claims, unemployment and wage growth.
Recently one item of concern has been layoffs and discharges, which generally have averaged higher since last July. This weakness continued in April, as they increased by 196,000 to 1.796 million, their highest level in two years except for last September and October:
This is consistent with the increase in the unemployment rate (red, right scale) to new levels in the past year, as well as the recent trends in new and continuing jobless claims (not shown), both of which typically follow with a short lag.
Additionally, the quits rate (left scale) typically leads the YoY% change in average hourly wages for nonsupervisory workers (red, right scale):
In April the quits rate fell back -0.1% to 2.0%. Although in the past few months the trend has been a slight improvement, this is still below any post-pandemic reading before last September. This downshift has not yet been reflected in average hourly wages, which tend to follow with a lag. Thus the likelihood remains that wage growth will decelerate further on a YoY basis over the next few months.
The message of this morning’s JOLTS report, like last month’s is that the “soft landing” was intact through April, although future wage gains are likely to be further attenuated. Unfortunately, of course, this was almost certainly one of the last reports - if not *the* last report - not to be affected by Tariff-palooza.
