(Plus a pyrrhic political presidential prediction)
- by New Deal democrat
How did my economic forecast for2016, made one year ago, pan out? The result is Up at XE.com.
While it wasn't an economic forecast, I did use economic data to make a forecast the 2016 presidential election, that the candidate of the incumbent party would eke out a narrow victory.
Just before the election, my final personal forecast was
Clinton 49.5%
Trump 46.0%
Third parties 4.5%
According to the Cook Political Report, the final result was
Clinton 48.2%
Trump 46.1%
Third parties 5.7%
So my prediction was pretty darn close, but of no use whatsoever because of the state by state distribution of that result.
