Yesterday's price action was straightforward: prices declined in a disciplined manner in the morning (a) and then moved slightly higher in the afternoon (b). However, the afternoon's action was more of a bottom; there was a slight upward bias, but nothing very strong.
Prices are still above key resistance levels, but have not been able to move much higher. The EMAs are still very bullish -- all are moving higher and the shorter are above the longer -- but there is little momentum to move beyond this point. The reason is money is still moving into the Treasury market:
Yesterday, prices gapped higher at the open (a) and then moved higher (b). This is the mirror image of the equity markets price action yesterday.
On the daily chart, prices are below the big, long-term trend line, but that's about it. The EMAs are still in a very bullish orientation -- the shorter are above the longer and all are moving higher.
Last week, the USDA reported a larger corn crop estimate, which took the wind out of the corn market rally (which was also rallying in sympathy with Wheat because of the Russian drought). Notice that prices rallied in an increasingly sharper upward angle (A, B, and C) until they hit their latest peak. But we've seen prices move fairly sharply lower (D), now resting at/near the 50 day EMA (E). Also notice the MACD has also given a sell signal.
Wheat prices have moved lower in a disciplined downward sloping pennant pattern (A). Also notice that momentum is decreasing (B).
Although the oil market is still in a trading range (A) it has had a nice price bump over the last few trading sessions (B), along with a buy signal from the MACD (B). However, prices need to move above upper resistance of at least 84 before this becomes a bull market. And remember there is a tremendous amount of supply which is holding back the market.
