From the NY Fed:
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions improved modestly in August for New York manufacturers. The general business conditions index rose 2 points from its July level, to 7.1. The new orders and shipments indexes both dipped below zero for the first time in more than a year, indicating that orders and shipments declined on balance; the unfilled orders index was also negative. The indexes for both prices paid and prices received inched down, while employment indexes were positive and higher than last month. The six-month outlook weakened; though future indexes were generally still positive, many fell in August, with the notable exceptions of the future employment and capital expenditures indexes, which climbed after falling last month.
Here is a chart of the data:
Manufacturing pulled the economy out of the recession. Now it appears it is losing steam.
Part of my thesis for this recovery is that various parts will emerge at various times, but there will not be a cohesive "expanding on all fronts" scenario. That is, instead of having consumers and manufacturers humming along at the same time, we'll see very lumpy growth. Manufacturing has provided part of the first leg of the recovery. Now we'll see if other parts of the economy pick-up.
