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Let's start with the long end of the curve. From September through December, the TLTs were trading in a slightly compressing triangle. Then they went parabolic, rising from 98 to 120 -- a gain of 22.44%. That type of gain is literally unheard of in the fixed income world and indicates the Treasury market is in a bubble.
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The IEF (7-10 years) also rose through important technical resistance right around the 92.50 level and is now 7.5% above the high points of its 9 month trading range.
With both of these charts, notice the extremely sharp increase in prices that's happening right now; these are large jumps for a fixed income security. Also note the SMAs -- they are all sharply up indicating traders are bidding these securities up sharply.
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On the short end of the curve, first notice the rise since the end of June. The rally has been strong and continuous.
On the three month chart notice the following:
-- Prices used the 10 and 20 day SMAs as technical support for the last three months. Now prices have moved below that level.
-- The 10 day SMA is about to cross below the 20 day SMA
These are all initial moves, and could easily be reversed with a week or so on contrary action, so don't bet the farm on these moves. However, they do indicate times might be gearing up for a change.
