Monday, October 5, 2026

Economically weighted ISM indexes for October show a broader, but even more inflationary, expansion

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   - by New Deal democrat I think if I ever decided to cut back my online writing about the economy to the bare bones, it would be two posts...
Saturday, October 3, 2026

Weekly Indicators for September 28 - October 2

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. When looking at the economy, you have to put your ideological ...
Friday, October 2, 2026

September jobs report: a weakly positive report consistent with an inflationary expansion

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   - by New Deal democrat For most of this year my Big Theme has been that the AI Boom (or possibly bubble) has been counterbalancing a stag...
Thursday, October 1, 2026

The inflationary AI data center Boom continues, while the rest of the goods producing economy appears recessionary

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   - by New Deal democrat As per usual, we start out the month with the ISM manufacturing report (for September) and the construction report...

Jobless claims continue to decline near historic lows

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   - by New Deal democrat We’ll get important information on manufacturing and construction later this morning, but in the meantime let’s ta...
Wednesday, September 30, 2026

August personal income and spending: suddenly, the downturn in real pesonal incomes has vanished; everything is sunny and upbeat

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   - by New Deal democrat Along with the employment report, real income and spending are probably the most important monthly reports as to t...
Tuesday, September 29, 2026

August JOLTS report shows a labor market stabilized in a sideways low hire, low fire trend

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning’s other economic report was the JOLTS labor market report for August. This parses turnover in the mar...

Repeat home sales price indexes continue recent trend of increasing YoY

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   - by New Deal democrat The current economic cycle has not just, as I explained yesterday, busted the infallibility of the inverted yield ...
Monday, September 28, 2026

Another infallible economic indicator bites the dust: inverted yield curve edition

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   - by New Deal democrat No big economic data today. So let’s take a look at a significant forecasting tool. Some leading indicators are ve...
Saturday, September 26, 2026

Weekly Indicators for September 21 - 25 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . There are two big, and opposing, forces pulling the economy i...