Wednesday, April 29, 2026

The quandary of housing: almost all signs are classically recessionary; so why hasn’t there been a recession?

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   - by New Deal democrat As I reiterated the other day, housing is the one long leading signal of the economy that has been soundly negativ...

Capital goods orders rise to a new all-time record high in March

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   - by New Deal democrat There was some important housing data this morning; but first I wanted to drop a brief note on the advance report ...
Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Repeat home sales, new rents continue to show almost *no* inflationary pressure in shelter costs

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   - by New Deal democrat Three housing metrics have been reported between yesterday and today. Yesterday Apartment List updated their Natio...
Monday, April 27, 2026

Updating the long leading indicators: money and credit, plus overall review

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   - by New Deal democrat In the past week, I have been updating my suite of long leading indicators. First I looked at “real” consumer-focu...
Sunday, April 26, 2026

Weekly Indicators for April 20 - 24 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . This past week had a particular paucity of monthly data, and ...
Friday, April 24, 2026

Updating the long leading indicators: interest rate levels and duration spreads

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   - by New Deal democrat As I noted earlier this week, I haven’t updated my suite of long leading indicators in awhile, mainly because they...