Saturday, June 28, 2025

Weekly Indicators for June 23 - 27 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . There have been a number of reversals since April, most notab...
Friday, June 27, 2025

May personal income and spending: consumer payback for Tariff-palooza! is a B!t©h

›
   - by New Deal democrat The last significant data for the first half of 2025, personal income and spending for May, was released this mor...
Thursday, June 26, 2025

Jobless claims indicate employment market continues to weaken, but still not recessionary

›
   - by New Deal democrat Jobless claims continue to tell us two things: (1) the jobs market continues to slowly weaken, but (2) it is not ...
Wednesday, June 25, 2025

May new home sales decline, but prices firm, more evidence suggesting rebalancing

›
   - by New Deal democrat  This morning gives us the last of our three measures of home sales, prices, and inventory,  new home sales. The...
Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Repeat home sales through April confirm housing market is well on its way to rebalancing

›
   - by New Deal democrat Yesterday the existing home sales report showed continued deceleration in YoY price increases to 1.3%, along with...
Monday, June 23, 2025

May existing home sales show prices stabilizing, inventory continuing to increase towards its historical range

›
   - by New Deal democrat The first part of this week is all about more housing data. This morning started out with   existing home sales, ...
Sunday, June 22, 2025

“Economic expansions don’t die of old age; they are murdered” usually by domestic or geopolitical exogenous shocks

›
   - by New Deal democrat There is an old saying that “economic expansions don’t die of old age. They are murdered.”  I have been writing ab...
Saturday, June 21, 2025

Weekly Indicators for June 16 - 20 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The trends that have been in place ever since the start of Tar...
Thursday, June 19, 2025

Why hasn’t the housing downturn caused a recession yet? A detailed look

›
   - by New Deal democrat As promised yesterday, today let me take an extended look at the important leading sector of housing. I want to wa...
Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Housing construction looks even more recessionary

›
   - by New Deal democrat Because no data will be released tomorrow due to the Federal holiday, I am going to defer a deeper look at the ver...

Jobless claims show a weakening, but not (yet) recessionary economy

›
   - by New Deal democrat Because tomorrow is the Federal Juneteenth Holiday, initial and continuing claims were released today. They contin...
Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Industrial and manufacturing production mixed, but also consistent with the end of front-running

›
   - by New Deal democrat Today’s second report was for industrial production, including its important manufacturing component.  The data fo...

May real retail sales: the front-running of tariffs is over

›
   - by New Deal democrat We can safely say that the front-running of tariffs is over. As usual, real retail sales is one of my favorite ind...