Saturday, June 21, 2025

Weekly Indicators for June 16 - 20 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The trends that have been in place ever since the start of Tar...
Thursday, June 19, 2025

Why hasn’t the housing downturn caused a recession yet? A detailed look

›
   - by New Deal democrat As promised yesterday, today let me take an extended look at the important leading sector of housing. I want to wa...
Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Housing construction looks even more recessionary

›
   - by New Deal democrat Because no data will be released tomorrow due to the Federal holiday, I am going to defer a deeper look at the ver...

Jobless claims show a weakening, but not (yet) recessionary economy

›
   - by New Deal democrat Because tomorrow is the Federal Juneteenth Holiday, initial and continuing claims were released today. They contin...
Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Industrial and manufacturing production mixed, but also consistent with the end of front-running

›
   - by New Deal democrat Today’s second report was for industrial production, including its important manufacturing component.  The data fo...

May real retail sales: the front-running of tariffs is over

›
   - by New Deal democrat We can safely say that the front-running of tariffs is over. As usual, real retail sales is one of my favorite ind...
Monday, June 16, 2025

Updating the nonfinancial long leading indicators, plus several important short leading ones

›
   - by New Deal democrat Since a couple of years ago, I temporarily suspended my updating of the long leading indicators. That is because t...
Saturday, June 14, 2025

Weekly Indicators for June 9 - 13 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . While there were no significant changes in the indicators, th...
Friday, June 13, 2025

The state of freight

›
   - by New Deal democrat It is very difficult to track the impacts of Tariff-palooza! on the US supply chain, due to delays in any sort of ...
Thursday, June 12, 2025

New 21 month high in the four week average of initial claims; and new 3.5 year high in continuing claims. But no recesion signal

›
   - by New Deal democrat This week’s update in jobless claims was decidedly mixed. Initial claims were unchanged at 248,000. Nevertheless t...
Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Consumer price inflation: once again, all clear except for (slowly disinflating) shelter

›
    - by New Deal democrat The story of consumer prices in May is the same as it has been for the past several months: virtually everything ...