Saturday, November 6, 2021

Weekly Indicators for October 1 - 5 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. As I point out from time to time, one of the biggest values in ...
Friday, November 5, 2021

October jobs report: a very strong report putting to rest questions about the strength of the expansion

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   - by New Deal democrat In the light of the last two month’s relatively “poor” jobs readings, an important question was what was going to ...
Thursday, November 4, 2021

Three reasons for the decline in Biden’s (and Democrats’) popularity

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    - by New Deal democrat Dan Guild follows presidential approval closely, and uses it to model election outcomes, including State level as...

Layoffs, wages, and labor costs: three measures of the labor Boom

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined another 14,000 this week to 269,000, and the 4 week average declined 15,000 to 284,750, b...
Wednesday, November 3, 2021

October vehicle sales give sharply mixed message about the economy going forward

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   - by New Deal democrat Ok, FRED is back up and running, so here is my economic post of the day. Vehicle sales used to be reported monthly...

About last night

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   - by New Deal democrat I was going to write about motor vehicle sales (not good), but FRED is down for maintenance. I might put somethin...
Tuesday, November 2, 2021

Coronavirus dashboard for November 2: the winter wave has begun

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   - by New Deal democrat The Delta decline is probably over. Nationwide US cases are up 4000/day from one week ago. The Northeast and South...
Monday, November 1, 2021

Manufacturing remained strong in October, while construction spending declined in September (but not yet at recessionary levels)

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    - by New Deal democrat As usual, we started out the month with the forward-looking ISM manufacturing report for October, as well as cons...
Saturday, October 30, 2021

Weekly Indicators for October 25 - 29 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . There are increasing signs that commodity prices are peaking, ...
Friday, October 29, 2021

September personal income and spending: positive, but consumers’ “cushion” of pandemic assistance savings is now exhausted

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   -by New Deal democrat Real personal income and spending held up well throughout the pandemic, due to a vigorous government response. This...
Thursday, October 28, 2021

Jobless claims: it’s Boom time for workers

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   - by New Deal democrat I’ll keep this morning’s update on jobless claims brief, because we have clearly moved past any pandemic weakness....
Wednesday, October 27, 2021

Coronavirus dashboard for October 27: whither the winter wave, and the trajectory of endemic COVID

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    - by New Deal democrat Well, we got some definite good news yesterday in the FDA approval of vaccines for children ages 5-11. Probably a...
Tuesday, October 26, 2021

New home sales confirm upturn in housing, while FHFA and Case Shiller suggest increase in house prices is slowing

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning we got three reports on housing sales and prices. Let’s start with the sales data. New home sales, w...
Monday, October 25, 2021

Q3 GDP will show economic contraction? 150+ years of short term interest rate history says no

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   - by New Deal democrat No economic news today, but let me show you one important reason I am not concerned about the supply chain or infl...
Sunday, October 24, 2021

My Big Picture

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   - by New Deal democrat It’s a Sunday, and it’s been a while since I put up some generalized thoughts on where we are, so let’s update. I’...
Saturday, October 23, 2021

Weekly Indicators for October 18 - 22 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Yesterday I wrote about how house prices appear to be at their ...
Friday, October 22, 2021

Median prices for existing homes is probably at peak; expect inventory to continue to increase

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   - by New Deal democrat Existing home sales were reported yesterday for September, up 7% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis. ...