Saturday, February 23, 2019

Weekly Indicators for February 18 - 22 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The short leading indicators have sunk to a level that is ...
Friday, February 22, 2019

Housing may bottom this spring

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 - by New Deal democrat Despite yesterday’s poor existing home sales report, which was the worst in over three years, the bottom in housi...
Thursday, February 21, 2019

Industrial transportation stalls out

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  - by New Deal democrat The two main forms of transporting goods, rail and trucking, have both gone negative YoY, and on average over th...
Wednesday, February 20, 2019

100 years of industrial production

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  - by New Deal democrat This is a post that can literally be written only once in 100 years! Because as of last Friday, it has been e...
Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Wages continued to improve through January

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 - by New Deal democrat One item I didn’t get around to in the last couple of weeks is how wages performed as of January’s jobs report. ...
Monday, February 18, 2019

It’s Presidents Day, and we’re still basically flying blind on the eoncomy

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 - by New Deal democrat Not only are the markets closed today for President’s Day, but this entire week is about the emptiest I can ever...
Saturday, February 16, 2019

Weekly Indicators for February 11 - 15 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . There was some widespread deterioration among both the sho...
Friday, February 15, 2019

Industrial production face-plants, but hold the DOOOM for now

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 - by New Deal democrat For the second day in a row, a major piece of economic data face-planted. Industrial production for the month of...
Thursday, February 14, 2019

More signs of a slowdown: initial claims and real retail sales

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 - by New Deal democrat This morning we got two negative data points. One is cause for concern; the other - not quite yet. Let me star...
Wednesday, February 13, 2019

The 2017 GOP tax scam may hurt the economy this spring

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 - by New Deal democrat It turns out that part of the GOP tax scam of 2017 might hurt the economy this year. That’s because the total d...
Tuesday, February 12, 2019

December JOLTS report: mixed but with strong positive revisions

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 - by New Deal democrat The JOLTS report on labor is noteworthy and helpful because it breaks down the jobs market into a more granular ...
Monday, February 11, 2019

A decelerating Staffing Index suggests that weakening temporary jobs in the monthly employment report is not just noise

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 - by New Deal democrat Every week I report the YoY 4 week rolling average of American Staffing Association’s Index. It’s been decelerat...
Saturday, February 9, 2019

Weekly Indicators for February 4 - 8 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is u p at Seeking Alpha . The weekly model is at (slight) variance with the model un...
Friday, February 8, 2019

What does a “Recession Watch” mean?

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 -by New Deal democrat On Wednesday I went on “Recession Watch” beginning Q4 of this year. Yesterday I explained what that means i...
Thursday, February 7, 2019

Recession Watch beginning Q4 2019

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  - by New Deal democrat It had to happen someday. My comprehensive update of the long leading indicators is u p at Seeking Alpha . A...
Wednesday, February 6, 2019

February short leading data starts out decent

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- by New Deal democrat We’ve had two pieces of forward looking data in the last week (in addition to the leading bits in the employment...
Tuesday, February 5, 2019

Q4 Senior Loan Officer Survey says ...

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 - by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey is one of my list of long leading indicators. The Q4 report came out yesterday. ...
Monday, February 4, 2019

Leading scenes from the employment report not so positive

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 - by New Deal democrat I seem to have been the only person to pick up on the weakness in the underlying leading aspects of last Friday’...
Sunday, February 3, 2019

Reduction in Representation as the remedy for voter suppression

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 - by New Deal democrat This is the second take prompted by my reading of David W. Blight‘s biography of Frederick Douglass. In the ...

Frederick Douglass, Andrew Johnson, and the Copperhead GOP

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 - by New Deal democrat I am currently reading David W. Blight’s biography of Frederick Douglass, the 19th century orator and champion of...