- by New Deal democrat
It had to happen someday.
My comprehensive update of the long leading indicators is u
p at Seeking Alpha.
After almost 10 years of being relentlessly positive, enough of the long leading indicators have turned negative to warrant a “Recession Watch” beginning in the 4th quarter of this year. (And only one day after Bill McBride a/k/a Calculated Risk Pooh-poohed such things, too! But I go where the data takes me.)
A word of caution: this doesn’t mean that a near-term recession is certain, and it doesn’t mean that it is certain to begin in Q4. But it is very much in play.