Saturday, February 16, 2019

Weekly Indicators for February 11 - 15 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . There was some widespread deterioration among both the sho...
Friday, February 15, 2019

Industrial production face-plants, but hold the DOOOM for now

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 - by New Deal democrat For the second day in a row, a major piece of economic data face-planted. Industrial production for the month of...
Thursday, February 14, 2019

More signs of a slowdown: initial claims and real retail sales

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 - by New Deal democrat This morning we got two negative data points. One is cause for concern; the other - not quite yet. Let me star...
Wednesday, February 13, 2019

The 2017 GOP tax scam may hurt the economy this spring

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 - by New Deal democrat It turns out that part of the GOP tax scam of 2017 might hurt the economy this year. That’s because the total d...
Tuesday, February 12, 2019

December JOLTS report: mixed but with strong positive revisions

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 - by New Deal democrat The JOLTS report on labor is noteworthy and helpful because it breaks down the jobs market into a more granular ...
Monday, February 11, 2019

A decelerating Staffing Index suggests that weakening temporary jobs in the monthly employment report is not just noise

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 - by New Deal democrat Every week I report the YoY 4 week rolling average of American Staffing Association’s Index. It’s been decelerat...
Saturday, February 9, 2019

Weekly Indicators for February 4 - 8 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is u p at Seeking Alpha . The weekly model is at (slight) variance with the model un...
Friday, February 8, 2019

What does a “Recession Watch” mean?

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 -by New Deal democrat On Wednesday I went on “Recession Watch” beginning Q4 of this year. Yesterday I explained what that means i...
Thursday, February 7, 2019

Recession Watch beginning Q4 2019

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  - by New Deal democrat It had to happen someday. My comprehensive update of the long leading indicators is u p at Seeking Alpha . A...
Wednesday, February 6, 2019

February short leading data starts out decent

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- by New Deal democrat We’ve had two pieces of forward looking data in the last week (in addition to the leading bits in the employment...
Tuesday, February 5, 2019

Q4 Senior Loan Officer Survey says ...

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 - by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey is one of my list of long leading indicators. The Q4 report came out yesterday. ...
Monday, February 4, 2019

Leading scenes from the employment report not so positive

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 - by New Deal democrat I seem to have been the only person to pick up on the weakness in the underlying leading aspects of last Friday’...
Sunday, February 3, 2019

Reduction in Representation as the remedy for voter suppression

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 - by New Deal democrat This is the second take prompted by my reading of David W. Blight‘s biography of Frederick Douglass. In the ...

Frederick Douglass, Andrew Johnson, and the Copperhead GOP

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 - by New Deal democrat I am currently reading David W. Blight’s biography of Frederick Douglass, the 19th century orator and champion of...
Saturday, February 2, 2019

Weekly Indicators for January 28 - February 1 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . There are continuing if small shifts in all of the long lea...
Friday, February 1, 2019

January jobs report: a tale of two almost diametrically opposed components

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 - by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : +304,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate rose 0.1% from 3.9% to 4.0%  U6 underemployment rate r...
Thursday, January 31, 2019

What to watch for in tomorrow’s jobs report

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 - by New Deal democrat Last month I said to keep an eye on the temporary employment number in the jobs report, because it is a leading...