Wednesday, September 30, 2026

August personal income and spending: suddenly, the downturn in real pesonal incomes has vanished; everything is sunny and upbeat

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   - by New Deal democrat Along with the employment report, real income and spending are probably the most important monthly reports as to t...
Tuesday, September 29, 2026

August JOLTS report shows a labor market stabilized in a sideways low hire, low fire trend

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning’s other economic report was the JOLTS labor market report for August. This parses turnover in the mar...

Repeat home sales price indexes continue recent trend of increasing YoY

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   - by New Deal democrat The current economic cycle has not just, as I explained yesterday, busted the infallibility of the inverted yield ...
Monday, September 28, 2026

Another infallible economic indicator bites the dust: inverted yield curve edition

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   - by New Deal democrat No big economic data today. So let’s take a look at a significant forecasting tool. Some leading indicators are ve...
Saturday, September 26, 2026

Weekly Indicators for September 21 - 25 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . There are two big, and opposing, forces pulling the economy i...
Friday, September 25, 2026

Despite everything in Washington, manufacturing is Booming

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 - by New Deal democrat One of the things I occasionally pat myself on the back about is spotting new trends first. Such was the case one ye...
Thursday, September 24, 2026

August new home sales consistent with a housing recovery. Unfortunately . . .

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   - by New Deal democrat In the past few months, I have described the housing market as being in a subpar equilibrium, with sales, construc...

Extremely low jobless claims forecast unemployment rate declining below 4%

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s take our regular weekly look at jobless claims. As a reminder, I look at these because they are an excellent...
Wednesday, September 23, 2026

The rebound in manufacturing employment is likely real, if fragile

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   - by New Deal democrat Over at Econbrowser, Prof. Menzie Chinn asks whether the gains in manufacturing employment as measured by the mont...
Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Yes, Virginia, the k-shaped economy is real

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   - by New Deal democrat Financial pundit  Lance Roberts recently wrote an article entitled , “K-shaped economy: reality or media driven pe...