Thursday, August 6, 2026

Very positive “superlow” new jobless claims forecast an unemployment rate under 4% in the next few months

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   - by New Deal democrat The superlow number of job losses in the country continues to be one of the two most powerfully positive signals f...
Wednesday, August 5, 2026

The economically weighted ISM indexes for July show a reasonably strong but stagflationary expansion

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   - by New Deal democrat The economically weighted ISM manufacturing + services indexes continue to be the best timely snapshot of the US e...

My updated “consumer nowcast” is up at Seeking Alpha; plus, more confirmation in the June JOLTS report

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    - by New Deal democrat Yesterday I posted the update of my “consumer nowcast” over at Seeking Alpha.   As a refresher, this system look...
Monday, August 3, 2026

August starts with a great ISM manufacturing report, but a dismal construction spending one

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   - by New Deal democrat As per usual, we start out the month with the ISM manufacturing report (for July) and the construction report (for...
Saturday, August 1, 2026

Weekly Indicators for July 27 - 31 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . Unsurprisingly, the big move this week was in interest rates,...
Friday, July 31, 2026

Consumers’ strong spending contrasts with recessionary real incomes in June

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   - by New Deal democrat Here is my delayed write-up on yesterday’s report on personal income and spending in June. To cut to the chase, it...
Thursday, July 30, 2026

Q2 GDP: ‘meh’ and good headlines matched by ‘meh’ and good leading indicators for 2027

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   - by New Deal democrat Note: I will post my long write-up about personal income, spending, and saving tomorrow morning.  As per usual, my...

Initial claims continue very positive for the economy, near 50+ year lows

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   - by New Deal democrat FRED has been very slow about updating either personal income and spending or Q1 GDP data graphs, so while I am wa...
Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Has America become an “extractive economy”? The ‘tell’ of interest rates and inflation

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   - by New Deal democrat There is a quote, allegedly from Alexander Frazer Tytler over 200 years ago, but apparently actually originating i...
Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Is the disinflation in repeat home sales prices ending?

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   - by New Deal democrat There may be a new, slightly accelerating, trend developing in house prices — or it may just be noise. The former,...