Saturday, July 11, 2026

Weekly Indicators for July 6 - 10 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . The high frequency data continues to confirm my Big Picture o...
Friday, July 10, 2026

This is what entrenched economic power looks like

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   - by New Deal democrat As we come to the end of the week after the payrolls report, when typically almost nothing is reported, I wanted t...
Thursday, July 9, 2026

The housing market’s new suboptimal equilibrium: flat, flat, and flat

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   - by New Deal democrat It has been four years since the Fed started aggressively raising interest rates, causing mortgage rates to rise s...

Jobles claims: the “low-hire, *no*-fire” regime continues, as the “Quick and Dirty” forecast model remains positive

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s take our regular weekly look at jobless claims. In addition to being 1/2 of my “quick and dirty” forecasting...
Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Regional Fed surveys confirm manufacturing rebound: services, not so much

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   - by New Deal democrat Yesterday I looked at the economically weighted ISM manufacturing and services indexes, pointing out that they hav...
Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Scenes from the June jobs report: a weak but improving economy

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   - by New Deal democrat There’s no important new economic news today, so let’s take a somewhat deeper dive into last Thursday’s employment...
Monday, July 6, 2026

The economically weighted ISM indexes for June show continued growth, equipoise in employment, and still strong inflation at the producer level

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   - by New Deal democrat The economically weighted ISM manufacturing + services indexes have become one of my favorite datapoints. In parti...
Saturday, July 4, 2026

The United States of America at 250: the enemy of Republics is entrenched power

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   - by New Deal democrat On America’s 250th anniversary, the state of the Republic is not good. Ten years ago, after the 2016 election, I e...

Weekly Indicators for June 39 - July 3 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha .  Two cross-currrents I mentioned in my long piece yesterday w...
Friday, July 3, 2026

My Big Picture nowcast and forecast at mid-year 2026 (it may surprise you!)

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   - by New Deal democrat Earlier this week I promised an updated Big Picture forecast and nowcast for the US economy, plus a note about how...
Thursday, July 2, 2026

June employment report: weakly positive headlines, and important negatives in hours and payrolls

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   - by New Deal democrat My Big Theme for the past few months has been that the AI Boom (or possibly bubble) is counterbalancing a stagnant...
Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Starting off the second half of 2026 (mainly) positive

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   - by New Deal democrat [Special programming note: Today we begin the second half of the year. On Friday there will be no data due to the ...