Saturday, June 13, 2026

Weekly Indicators for June 8 - 12 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There was little change this week, but restaurant reservations...
Friday, June 12, 2026

The entire US economy is downstream of the AI buildout dam, and that dam is almost certain to fail

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   - by New Deal democrat I’ve been ambivalent about whether the mania for AI is a Boom or a Bubble. That’s because whether its use is trans...
Thursday, June 11, 2026

Producer prices suggest 5%+ YoY CPI, and very soon

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   - by New Deal democrat I just wanted to drop a brief note about this morning’s PPI report. In May headline producer prices rose 1.1% for ...

More evidence for the return of post-pandemic seasonality in jobless claims

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   - by New Deal democrat Last week I wrote that “ we’re coming up on the one year anniversary of that change of regime, so it will be inter...
Wednesday, June 10, 2026

May CPI is “less bad,” but bad enough to edge consumers closer to recessionary income levels

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   - by New Deal democrat Just as forecast by the Cleveland Fed, the CPI in May increased 0.5% - less than the increases in March and April...
Tuesday, June 9, 2026

Existing home sales report shows a sub-optimal equilibrium with rangebound sales, prices, and inventory

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   - by New Deal democrat First of all, my usual caveat: although they constitute about 90% of all housing sales, I don’t pay too much atten...
Monday, June 8, 2026

Scenes of strength and weakness from the May jobs report

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   - by New Deal democrat It’s the Monday after the jobs report, and as usual there is no new data today. So let’s take a look at a few of t...
Saturday, June 6, 2026

Weekly Indicators for June 1 - 5 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The large majority of the high frequency indicators remain pos...
Friday, June 5, 2026

May jobs report: a solid positive report, with the important (likely) exception of wages

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    - by New Deal democrat My Big Theme for the past few months has been that the AI Boom (or possibly bubble) is counterbalancing a stagnan...
Thursday, June 4, 2026

Jobless claims virtually screaming for lower unemployment rate; is post-pandemic seasonality making a return?

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   - by New Deal democrat We are - maybe! - finally seeing some of the unresolved post-pandemic seasonality reasserting itself as to initial...
Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Economically weighted ISM services + manufacturing indexes show expanding economy, stagnant employment, and rampant inflationary pressures

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   - by New Deal democrat The economically weighted ISM manufacturing + services indexes have become one of my favorite datapoints. That’s ...