Saturday, May 2, 2026

Weekly Indicators for April 27 - May 1 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . It is surprising how positive most of the high frequency data...
Friday, May 1, 2026

April ISM manufacturing: how long can the AI manufacturing Boom keep exploding prices from creating a consumer implosion?

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   - by New Deal democrat April data started out as usual with the ISM manufacturing index. There was some good news, but mainly bad news. T...

Blockbuster initial jobless claims report suggests unemployment could decline all the way to 4.0%

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   - by New Deal democrat I wasn’t able to get to either the GDP report or the jobless claims report yesterday. I’m going to hold off on the...
Thursday, April 30, 2026

Stagflationary real personal income, real spending on durable goods were recessionary in March, but consumers and manufacturers haven’t retrenched

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   - by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending are among the most important monthly indicators of all, because they give us a detail...
Wednesday, April 29, 2026

The quandary of housing: almost all signs are classically recessionary; so why hasn’t there been a recession?

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   - by New Deal democrat As I reiterated the other day, housing is the one long leading signal of the economy that has been soundly negativ...

Capital goods orders rise to a new all-time record high in March

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   - by New Deal democrat There was some important housing data this morning; but first I wanted to drop a brief note on the advance report ...
Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Repeat home sales, new rents continue to show almost *no* inflationary pressure in shelter costs

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   - by New Deal democrat Three housing metrics have been reported between yesterday and today. Yesterday Apartment List updated their Natio...
Monday, April 27, 2026

Updating the long leading indicators: money and credit, plus overall review

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   - by New Deal democrat In the past week, I have been updating my suite of long leading indicators. First I looked at “real” consumer-focu...
Sunday, April 26, 2026

Weekly Indicators for April 20 - 24 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . This past week had a particular paucity of monthly data, and ...
Friday, April 24, 2026

Updating the long leading indicators: interest rate levels and duration spreads

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   - by New Deal democrat As I noted earlier this week, I haven’t updated my suite of long leading indicators in awhile, mainly because they...
Thursday, April 23, 2026

Jobless claims: still the most positive datapoint in the entire US economy

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims, recently perhaps the most positive datapoint in the entire economy. ...
Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Updating the long leading indicators: corporate profits and housing

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   - by New Deal democrat This week I’m spending some time updating the non-financial long leading indicators. As I wrote on Monday, I haven...