Friday, April 24, 2026

Updating the long leading indicators: interest rate levels and duration spreads

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   - by New Deal democrat As I noted earlier this week, I haven’t updated my suite of long leading indicators in awhile, mainly because they...
Thursday, April 23, 2026

Jobless claims: still the most positive datapoint in the entire US economy

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims, recently perhaps the most positive datapoint in the entire economy. ...
Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Updating the long leading indicators: corporate profits and housing

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   - by New Deal democrat This week I’m spending some time updating the non-financial long leading indicators. As I wrote on Monday, I haven...
Tuesday, April 21, 2026

March retail spending: including or excluding gasoline makes all the difference

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   - by New Deal democrat Consumer spending is about 70% of the economy, and retail sales is our first wide measure of that spending. This m...
Monday, April 20, 2026

Updating the long leading indicators: per capita real retail spending and real spending on goods

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   - by New Deal democrat So much of the changes to the economy has been dictated by the whims of the White House that it has not made much ...
Saturday, April 18, 2026

Weekly Indicators for April 13 - 17 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . The biggest news this week is how sharply oil prices backed o...
Friday, April 17, 2026

March industrial production mainly continues stagnant trend

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   - by New Deal democrat Since I didn’t get to it yesterday, let me say a few words about yesterday’s industrial production report for Marc...
Thursday, April 16, 2026

Jobless claims continue to be the most positive metric in the array of economic indicators

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    - by New Deal democrat The new regime of lower jobless claims continued this week. Initial claims declined -11,000 to 207,000, while the...
Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Stock market at new highs, even with Strait of Hormuz still closed. What is Wall Street thinking?!?

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   - by New Deal democrat  As I type this, there are two particularly salient facts:  1. Although the US and Iran are not lobbing bombs at ...
Tuesday, April 14, 2026

March existing home sales demonstrate a new equilibrium in the housing market

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   - by New Deal democrat Sometimes there just isn’t much drama in economic numbers, and that was certainly the case for this month’s editio...
Monday, April 13, 2026

The Big Picture overview of the economy: the oil shock may be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back

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   - by New Deal democrat  Today I want to step back from the daily data and give you my Big Picture overview of the economy, particularly ...