Friday, March 13, 2026

January personal income and spending: treading water, leading metrics sinking

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 -  by New Deal democrat Before I get to the main event, a couple of quick comments on the other data released so far this morning:  1. Real...
Thursday, March 12, 2026

Housing permits, starts, and construction: signs of both imminent recession and “green shoots”

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning’s important data on housing construction contained two apparently contradictory trends: on the one ha...

Jobless claims continue at very low levels (plus an update on tech enshittification)

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   - by New Deal democrat I’ll post on the updated housing situation later this morning. Meanwhile, before I get to jobless claims, a brief ...
Wednesday, March 11, 2026

February CPI: a likely last hurrah for relatively tame consumer price increases

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   -  by New Deal democrat Much like last month, February benefited from shelter and gas prices - for a change - pulling in the same, disinf...
Tuesday, March 10, 2026

The “gold standard” QCEW for last Q3 strongly suggests no job growth whatsoever in 2025

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   -  by New Deal democrat The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)  is “the gold standard of US employment measures. It is an ac...
Monday, March 9, 2026

How $4/gallon gas could take the economy from a nearly complete stall into outright recession

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   - by New Deal democrat So, first some bad news: my tech issue has resurfaced, so only links to graphs rather than graphs themselves, hope...
Saturday, March 7, 2026

Weekly Indicators for March 2 - 6 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . Unsurprisingly, the big news of the week was the skyrocketing...
Friday, March 6, 2026

February jobs report: Main Street lays an egg

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   - by New Deal democrat I described last month as “the month the birds came home to roost…. In particular, the *entire* gains over the pas...
Thursday, March 5, 2026

“New regime” of lower jobless claims continues - a good sign (but for geopolitical idiocy)

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    - by New Deal democrat Let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims. As a reminder, I pay attention to these because they are a good sho...
Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Strongly positive ISM services report for February gives the best economically weighted reading for the economy in a year, (but also with a big dose of inflation)

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   - by New Deal democrat If Monday’s ISM manufacturing report was good (but with a dose of inflation), today’s ISM services report for Febr...