Friday, February 27, 2026

Construction spending mainly flat nominally and declining in real terms, except for AI data center-related Boom

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   - by New Deal democrat Before I get to the main object of this post, there was a little kerfluffle in the financial markets this morning ...
Thursday, February 26, 2026

More clarity in jobless claims: both post-pandemic seasonality and regime change at work

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   - by New Deal democrat As we move further into the calendar year, we are getting more clarity on what has been happening with jobless cla...
Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Per Prof. Edward Leamer’s forecasting method, a yellow flag “Recession Watch” is warranted

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   - by New Deal democrat In a landmark paper almost 20 years ago, UCLA Prof. Edward Leamer wrote that “Housing IS the Business Cycle.” In t...
Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Repeat existing home prices continue to increase at a snail’s pace, but still outstrip post-pandemic wage growth

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   - by New Deal democrat In the past month, all of the various home price indexes have confirmed abating inflation in the shelter sector. T...
Monday, February 23, 2026

Long leading indicators in Q4 GDP suggest worsening conditions for an economy barely keeping its head above water

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   - by New Deal democrat Last week’s Q4 GDP release, as usual, updated two long leading indicators: proprietors’ income (a placeholder for ...
Sunday, February 22, 2026

Weekly Indicators for February 16 - 20 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . It is striking that the (generally) non-governmental high fre...
Friday, February 20, 2026

December personal income and spending: on the very cusp of recessionary

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   - by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending are among the most important monthly indicators of all, because they give us a detail...
Thursday, February 19, 2026

AI data center and electricity supply production as drivers of industrial production and capital goods spending

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   - by New Deal democrat There is more and more accumulating evidence that manufacturing, at least in the aggregate, is something close to ...

Presidents’ Day week jobless claims pose a quandary

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   - by New Deal democrat Later this morning I’ll discuss yesterday’s positive durable goods orders release, and in that context I’ll also h...
Wednesday, February 18, 2026

Industrial production surged in January, further evidence of an AI data center led rebound

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   - by New Deal democrat Industrial production is much less central to the US economic picture than it was before the “China shock,” but it...

Housing short term indicators say “recession;” longer term indicators suggest “recovery” is close

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   - by New Deal democrat When I updated this information in September, I wrote that “a puzzling relationship this year has been that the ho...