Saturday, January 31, 2026

Weekly Indicators for January 26 - 30 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The trends in the high frequency data that became apparent aft...
Friday, January 30, 2026

Economically weighted regional Fed indexes for January suggest continued stagflationary pressures [Update: PPI as well]

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   - by New Deal democrat To briefly reiterate, although the government shutdown ended over two months ago, much of the official monthly dat...
Thursday, January 29, 2026

Jobless claims: the positive regime change continues, suggesting a lower unemployment rate ahead

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s take our normal weekly look at jobless claims. As a general reminder, these are a good high frequency short ...
Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Regional Fed manufacturing indexes suggest rebound continued in January, with continued inflationary (tariff-related?) pressures

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   - by New Deal democrat Although the last federal government shutdown has been over for 2.5 months — and a new one might begin this weeken...
Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Repeat home sales indices for November indicate continued rebalancing vs. new home prices — at a glacial pace

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   - by New Deal democrat For the past year, my view has been that the housing market is in recessionary territory, although that has not tr...
Monday, January 26, 2026

Stale data watch: manufacturers’ new orders soared in November — more evidence of AI data center building?

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   - by New Deal democrat With another likely government shutdown looming at the end of this week due to DHS funding, we are still playing c...
Saturday, January 24, 2026

Weekly Indicators for January 19 - 23 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The trends from last year are continuing so far this year. On ...
Friday, January 23, 2026

Economic cycle indicators update: the Autumn Shutdown Stall

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   - by New Deal democrat Now that we have the very important personal income and spending data through November, here is a look at the wide...
Thursday, January 22, 2026

No mini-recession during the government shutdown, as consumers raided their piggy banks to spend

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   - by New Deal democrat The news from this morning’s personal income and spending report for October and November was almost all good - wi...

More evidence of a positive “regime change” in jobless claims: is it tied to the immigration crackdown?

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   - by New Deal democrat We will get the very important personal income and spending updates for the government shutdown months later this ...
Wednesday, January 21, 2026

Stale data watch: construction spending for October — more “green shoots”?

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   - by New Deal democrat Originally housing permits and starts through December were supposed to be updated this morning, but that has now ...
Tuesday, January 20, 2026

Record low labor share: corporate profits are at their most extreme levels ever compared with nonsupervisory payrolls

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   - by New Deal democrat An  I’ve read a few takes in the past week or so about the declining “labor share” of GDP. To cut to the chase, he...
Monday, January 19, 2026

A powerful new tailwind behind the economy: the “real” price of gas

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   - by New Deal democrat There’s no new data of note today or tomorrow, so in the meantime (aside from observing Martin Luther King’s birth...
Saturday, January 17, 2026

Weekly Indicators for January 12 - 16 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . With the yield curve close to completely normal and mortgage ...
Friday, January 16, 2026

Industrial production sets new post-pandemic high in December - but mainly due to utilities

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   - by New Deal democrat Industrial production is much less central to the US economic picture than it was before the “China shock,” but it...
Thursday, January 15, 2026

Important scenes from the (recessonary?) December jobs report; was July a cycle peak?

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   - by New Deal democrat Last Friday I summarized the jobs report as “show[ing]  a contracting jobs market in all important metrics except ...

Jobless claims continue to be very positive, near multi-decade lows

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   - by New Deal democrat First, usually the week following the employment report is very quiet, and I put up “scenes from the report” with ...
Wednesday, January 14, 2026

December existing homes sales add evidence to the “green shoots” thesis for sales, while inventory still has a long ways to go

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   - by New Deal democrat Although the government shutdown is long over, the most recent government housing updates have been for October, I...

Monthly retail sales sharply higher in November, but flagging YoY real sales spell further trouble

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   - by New Deal democrat Real retail sales, one of my favorite broad-economy indicators, was updated through November this morning, making ...
Tuesday, January 13, 2026

October new home sales: also pre-recessionary, also with signs of possible “green shoots”

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   - by New Deal democrat New home sales were updated for the second time since the shutdown, with data only through October - i.e., stale. ...