Saturday, January 10, 2026

Weekly Indicators for January 5 - 9 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. If anything, the trends over the last few months to a year appe...
Friday, January 9, 2026

December jobs report: ringing the alarm bells for imminent recession* (*with caveats)

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   - by New Deal democrat [Note: Housing permits, starts, and units under construction were also updated this morning for September and Octo...
Thursday, January 8, 2026

Stale news: one “hurrah!” for the positive report on manufacturers’ durable and capital goods orders - for October

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   - by New Deal democrat In the category of updated but stale data, yesterday manufacturers’ durable goods orders were released for October...

November JOLTS report consistent with a weak, but sideways rather than negative, trend in the labor market

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   - by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS report for November was not stale inasmuch as it was at best delayed by a week or two. But never...

Jobless claims start the year where they left off: very low firing, problematic hiring possibly easing

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims, which are the best up-to-the-moment measure of the labor market. Ini...
Wednesday, January 7, 2026

ISM services report for December powerful evidence that the services providing sector of the US economy remains in solid expansion

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   - by New Deal democrat As I indicated yesterday and earlier today, we got some stale data on factory orders this morning, as well as a JO...

In December, truck sales tanked while car sales and private jobs (per ADP) increased

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   - by New Deal democrat I will write about the biggest economic release of the day, the ISM services report for December, later. In the me...
Tuesday, January 6, 2026

Real wages and consumer spending have been crucial positives; here is the most updated look

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 - New Deal democrat We are still suffering the aftereffects of the government shutdown, with no data today, but a helping of mainly stale g...
Monday, January 5, 2026

December ISM manufacturing report: continued contraction, continued stagflation, poor employment

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   - by New Deal democrat We are still suffering the data aftereffects of the government shutdown. Normally we begin each month with reports...
Saturday, January 3, 2026

Weekly Indicators for December 29 - January 2 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . As 2025 ended, all of the important trends seemed to intensif...
Friday, January 2, 2026

Economic year end summary for 2025: housing, jobs, and real income stagnant, while spending powers forward

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   - by New Deal democrat There is no new noteworthy data today; and the ISM manufacturing index, normally released on the first workday of ...
Wednesday, December 31, 2025

Regional Fed services indexes suggest future expansion, but weak employment in the face of strong inflationary pressures

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 - by New Deal democrat  Although the federal government shutdown has been over for a month and a half, most of the data that has been relea...

Positive trend in jobless claims continues through year end

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   - by New Deal democrat [Note: Yesterday was a travel day, and I didn’t get around to posting the regional Fed services survey averages fo...
Monday, December 29, 2025

Regional Fed manufacturing indexes suggest 2025 trends are slowly abating

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   - by New Deal democrat Although the federal government shutdown has been over for a month and a half, most of the data that has been rele...
Sunday, December 28, 2025

Weekly Indicators for December 22 - 26 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My :”Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . The year ended with a magnification of several trends that h...
Friday, December 26, 2025

How the “wealth effect” fueled Q3 GDP

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   - by New Deal democrat In Q3, personal spending rose 1.6%, or 6.4% annualized, while personal incomes only rose 0.8%, or 3.3% annualized....
Wednesday, December 24, 2025

The low pace of firings continues to Christmas

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   - by New Deal democrat Our last bit of news before Christmas continued the positive news, as initial jobless claims declined back to 214,...
Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Strong Q3 GDP, but long leading components are mixed; first preliminary positive signs for production in October

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   - by New Deal democrat Because today is a travel day for me, I am going to keep my comments about the much-delayed Q3 GDP report brief. A...
Monday, December 22, 2025

Two important employment indicators from November: one says continued expansion, the second recession

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    - by New Deal democrat This is going to be a sparse week for data, with the exception of tomorrow’s long-delayed Q3 GDP report, and jobl...
Saturday, December 20, 2025

Weekly Indicators for December 15 - 19 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . All of the trends that we have been seeing for the past sever...