Saturday, January 3, 2026

Weekly Indicators for December 29 - January 2 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . As 2025 ended, all of the important trends seemed to intensif...
Friday, January 2, 2026

Economic year end summary for 2025: housing, jobs, and real income stagnant, while spending powers forward

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   - by New Deal democrat There is no new noteworthy data today; and the ISM manufacturing index, normally released on the first workday of ...
Wednesday, December 31, 2025

Regional Fed services indexes suggest future expansion, but weak employment in the face of strong inflationary pressures

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 - by New Deal democrat  Although the federal government shutdown has been over for a month and a half, most of the data that has been relea...

Positive trend in jobless claims continues through year end

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   - by New Deal democrat [Note: Yesterday was a travel day, and I didn’t get around to posting the regional Fed services survey averages fo...
Monday, December 29, 2025

Regional Fed manufacturing indexes suggest 2025 trends are slowly abating

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   - by New Deal democrat Although the federal government shutdown has been over for a month and a half, most of the data that has been rele...
Sunday, December 28, 2025

Weekly Indicators for December 22 - 26 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My :”Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . The year ended with a magnification of several trends that h...
Friday, December 26, 2025

How the “wealth effect” fueled Q3 GDP

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   - by New Deal democrat In Q3, personal spending rose 1.6%, or 6.4% annualized, while personal incomes only rose 0.8%, or 3.3% annualized....
Wednesday, December 24, 2025

The low pace of firings continues to Christmas

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   - by New Deal democrat Our last bit of news before Christmas continued the positive news, as initial jobless claims declined back to 214,...
Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Strong Q3 GDP, but long leading components are mixed; first preliminary positive signs for production in October

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   - by New Deal democrat Because today is a travel day for me, I am going to keep my comments about the much-delayed Q3 GDP report brief. A...
Monday, December 22, 2025

Two important employment indicators from November: one says continued expansion, the second recession

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    - by New Deal democrat This is going to be a sparse week for data, with the exception of tomorrow’s long-delayed Q3 GDP report, and jobl...
Saturday, December 20, 2025

Weekly Indicators for December 15 - 19 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . All of the trends that we have been seeing for the past sever...
Friday, December 19, 2025

The “gold standard” QCEW through Q2 suggests little if any employment growth this year

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   - by New Deal democrat The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)  is “the gold standard of US employment measures. It is an act...
Thursday, December 18, 2025

Consumer inflation went to sleep in October-November, driven mainly by a steep deceleration in shelter price increases

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   - by New Deal democrat A truncated version of the CPI was reported for November this morning. Since no data was collected for October, th...

Jobless claims continue to paint a much more positive picture than the unemployment rate

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   - by New Deal democrat [Note: An update to my OS the other day has nuked my ability to post graphs. For now, I will post links to FRED gr...
Wednesday, December 17, 2025

Real retail sales contract; depending on inflation report may signal further job losses

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   - by New Deal democrat [Note: An update to my OS the other day has nuked my ability to post graphs. For now, I will post links to FRED gr...
Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Combined October and November jobs report: a hairs-breadth from recessionary, at best

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   - by New Deal democrat At Last this morning we got some up to date labor data from the federal government, but only partially. The Establ...
Monday, December 15, 2025

What do vehicle miles traveled and gas usage tell us about the economy?

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   - by New Deal democrat Today is the last day of our data drought before the onslaught of delayed reports that begins tomorrow with the N...
Saturday, December 13, 2025

Weekly Indicators for December 8 - 12 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. While there were no significant changes in the ratings, two bi...
Friday, December 12, 2025

Three important fundamentals-based indicators of the consumer economy: are they turning?

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   - by New Deal democrat Today is one day of quiet before a slew of updated statistics, including the November jobs and inflation reports, ...
Thursday, December 11, 2025

Is Thanksgiving seasonality masking a possible longer term positive regime change in jobless claims?

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   - by New Deal democrat This week’s update of initial and continuing jobless claims is a demonstration of two frames of seasonality: one i...