Saturday, December 13, 2025

Weekly Indicators for December 8 - 12 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. While there were no significant changes in the ratings, two bi...
Friday, December 12, 2025

Three important fundamentals-based indicators of the consumer economy: are they turning?

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   - by New Deal democrat Today is one day of quiet before a slew of updated statistics, including the November jobs and inflation reports, ...
Thursday, December 11, 2025

Is Thanksgiving seasonality masking a possible longer term positive regime change in jobless claims?

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   - by New Deal democrat This week’s update of initial and continuing jobless claims is a demonstration of two frames of seasonality: one i...
Wednesday, December 10, 2025

Q3 employment costs: probably the “least positive” since the pandemic

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   - by New Deal democrat The employment cost index, which was updated this morning through Q3, typically gets much less attention than the ...
Tuesday, December 9, 2025

October JOLTS report: red flag warning for employment sector in worst report since the pandemic

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning’s JOLTS report for October is now the most current official monthly indicator for the jobs sector. An...
Monday, December 8, 2025

While capital spending increased sharply, yet more evidence of consumer weakness

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   - by New Deal democrat On Friday I noted that real personal spending on goods, especially durable goods, had declined in September. If we...
Saturday, December 6, 2025

Weekly Indicators for December 1 - 5 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . There are some minor changes, but no big turns in trends. But...
Friday, December 5, 2025

Real income rises, but real spending on goods may be turning down

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   - by New Deal democrat Personal income and consumption is one of the two big monthly reports on the state of the average American, in add...
Thursday, December 4, 2025

Jobless claims: Holiday seasonality enters in a big way

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   - by New Deal democrat The good news is, we are back to the normal weekly jobless claims releases. The really good news is that this week...
Wednesday, December 3, 2025

ISM services for November generally positive and improving

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   - by New Deal democrat Probably the most important economic news this entire week was this morning’s ISM services report. Services are ab...

Production weakens while private employment declines

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   - by New Deal democrat Although not published by the federal government itself, the Fed’s measure of industrial production relies on some...
Tuesday, December 2, 2025

Still flying blind

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   - by New Deal democrat There are no significant updated data releases today - which is disconcetering, considering how far behind we are ...
Monday, December 1, 2025

November ISM manufacturing report indicates deepening stagflationary contraction

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   - by New Deal democrat Normally we begin each month with reports on both construction spending and manufacturing. But even though th fede...
Saturday, November 29, 2025

Weekly Indicators for November 24 - 28 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . In the aggregate, consumer spending remains robust. On the ot...
Friday, November 28, 2025

Regional Fed manufacturing and services indexes for November show manufacturing rebound, continued rampant price pressures, and stagnant employment

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   - by New Deal democrat Although the federal government has resumed reporting economic data, it is spotty and woefully stale, from August ...