Saturday, October 11, 2025

Weekly Indicators for October 6 - 10 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . More roiling of the waters in commodities, in between signs o...
Friday, October 10, 2025

The “Big Picture” nowcast and forecast

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   - by New Deal democrat  We are well into our data blackout, as no federal economic data whatsoever was released this week. Even sites th...
Thursday, October 9, 2025

The advance-decline line and the (maybe) AI-fueled consumer spending bubble

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   - by New Deal democrat I rarely comment on the financial markets directly, since my focus in on the economy and how it impacts ordinary w...
Wednesday, October 8, 2025

Consumer spending has continued to increase

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   - by New Deal democrat I concluded my post yesterday with the conclusion that “while housing and trucking are plainly recessionary, the b...
Tuesday, October 7, 2025

Auto and truck purchases give conflicting signals on expansion vs. recession

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   - by New Deal democrat The typical post-jobs report lull in the data is amplified this month (of course) by the fact that there was no jo...
Monday, October 6, 2025

Using tabulated State data, estimated initial and continuing claims last week continued in neutral range

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   - by New Deal democrat As we all know, initial and continuing jobless claims were not reported last Thursday. Which, by the way, is inter...
Saturday, October 4, 2025

Weekly Indicators for September 29 - October 3 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. All of the high frequency data that I gather in those posts co...
Friday, October 3, 2025

Alternate sources of employment data point to job losses, steady to higher unemployment rate in September

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   - by New Deal democrat As we all know by now, there is no US jobs report today due to the government shutdown. But there are a number of...
Thursday, October 2, 2025

Final August durable goods orders: more evidence that the AI related buildout is keeping the economy afloat

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   - by New Deal democrat Oddly, even though the government shutdown has crippled most reporting, the Census Bureau did update the durable g...

A note on initial jobless claims

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   - by New Deal democrat It’s Thursday, which typically means it’s time for the weekly initial and continuing jobless claims update. As we ...
Wednesday, October 1, 2025

ISM manufacturing index continues to show slight contraction, as new orders retreat

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   - by New Deal democrat Typically the new month begins with important manufacturing and construction reports; but this morning the constru...
Tuesday, September 30, 2025

August JOLTS report was weak, but foreshadows little

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   - by New Deal democrat In the past year, in contrast to much other data in the jobs sector, the JOLTS reports have been very much consist...