Saturday, September 13, 2025

Weekly Indicators for September 8 - 12 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . While job growth has almost completely stalled, and inflation...
Friday, September 12, 2025

August real average wages and nonsupervisory payrolls: some signs of flagging but no recession signal yet

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   - by New Deal democrat Now that we have the consumer inflation number for August, let’s take a look at real wages and income for ordinary...
Thursday, September 11, 2025

As consumer inflation shows more signs of re-acceleration, the Fed is being forced to pick its poison

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 - by New Deal democrat The Fed is really facing a no-win situation. Between the recent employment reports, the QCEW, and even this morning...

Initial claims have a Texas-sized increase

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   - by New Deal democrat I’ll post about the CPI later this morning. But unusually, the biggest news of the morning was initial jobless cla...
Wednesday, September 10, 2025

August producer prices largely a reflection of volatile food and energy prices

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   - by New Deal democrat Consumer price inflation will be reported tomorrow. In the meantime, this morning producer prices for August were ...
Tuesday, September 9, 2025

The “gold standard” QCEW suggests there may have been *no growth at all* in jobs so far this year

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   - by New Deal democrat The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for Q1 of this year was released this morning. Perhaps more im...

Vehicle sales in August looked pre-recessionary

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   - by New Deal democrat The QCEW for Q1 of this year will be released at 10 AM Eastern time this morning. It should also finalize the numb...
Monday, September 8, 2025

Scenes from the no good, rotten, terrible, and abysmal August jobs report

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s take a more in-depth look at the leading indicators for the economy in Friday’s abysmal employment report. A...
Saturday, September 6, 2025

Weekly Indicators for August 1 - 5 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My latest “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . The high frequency data continues to be buoyed by fina...
Friday, September 5, 2025

August jobs report: “Recession Watch” as the leading indicators across the spectrum turn negative

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   - by New Deal democrat Even before the utter chaos of the new Administration in Washington, my focus had been on whether the economy woul...
Thursday, September 4, 2025

Economically weighted ISM headline and new orders indexes back into weak expansion

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   - by New Deal democrat The regional Fed August indexes, including both manufacturing and general business activity, rebounded sharply, te...

Jobless claims revert to neutral

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   - by New Deal democrat In the last few weeks, there has been speculation that jobless claims may have been affected by the jihad against ...
Wednesday, September 3, 2025

The “soft landing” scenario in the JOLTS report remains intact

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 - by New Deal democrat In contrast to much other data in the jobs sector, the JOLTS reports have been very much consistent with a “soft la...
Tuesday, September 2, 2025

ISM manufacturing confirms rebound in new orders in August, but construciton spending continues to decline

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual, the new month begins with important manufacturing and construction reports which give us the pulse of th...