Saturday, September 6, 2025

Weekly Indicators for August 1 - 5 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My latest “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . The high frequency data continues to be buoyed by fina...
Friday, September 5, 2025

August jobs report: “Recession Watch” as the leading indicators across the spectrum turn negative

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   - by New Deal democrat Even before the utter chaos of the new Administration in Washington, my focus had been on whether the economy woul...
Thursday, September 4, 2025

Economically weighted ISM headline and new orders indexes back into weak expansion

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   - by New Deal democrat The regional Fed August indexes, including both manufacturing and general business activity, rebounded sharply, te...

Jobless claims revert to neutral

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   - by New Deal democrat In the last few weeks, there has been speculation that jobless claims may have been affected by the jihad against ...
Wednesday, September 3, 2025

The “soft landing” scenario in the JOLTS report remains intact

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 - by New Deal democrat In contrast to much other data in the jobs sector, the JOLTS reports have been very much consistent with a “soft la...
Tuesday, September 2, 2025

ISM manufacturing confirms rebound in new orders in August, but construciton spending continues to decline

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual, the new month begins with important manufacturing and construction reports which give us the pulse of th...
Saturday, August 30, 2025

Weekly Indicators for August 25 - 29 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat  My “Weekly Indictors” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The most significant benefit of these high frequency indicators ...
Friday, August 29, 2025

July real income and spending rebound, keeping the expansionary trends intact

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   - by New Deal democrat Last month I concluded: “ This was a very weak report, although not negative. If there were not distortions from t...
Thursday, August 28, 2025

Jobless claims suggest continuing, but resolving seasonality issues

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims have been relatively subdued for the past month. Some have suggested that this is a byprodu...
Wednesday, August 27, 2025

Manufacturers’ new durable goods orders is a bright spot

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   - by New Deal democrat No new significant economic data today, but yesterday we did get a look at manufacturers’ orders for durable goods...
Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Repeat home sales indexes provide final confirmation that the housing market is in deflation

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   - by New Deal democrat Last week YoY existing home prices increased only 0.2%. Since those were not seasonally adjusted, it was apparent ...
Monday, August 25, 2025

New home sales: the final shoe in the housing sector has dropped

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    - by New Deal democrat In this month’s report on  new home sales for July, the most important news was at the tail end, which I’ll get t...
Saturday, August 23, 2025

Weekly Indicators for August 18 - 22 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There were no big changes this week, but what continues to st...
Friday, August 22, 2025

The rebalancing of the housing market continues, as existing home price increases have halted, and inventory finally exceeds 2020 levels

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    - by New Deal democrat  The housing market, for all of its economic importance, tends to move as slow as molasses. This is especially t...