Saturday, August 30, 2025

Weekly Indicators for August 25 - 29 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat  My “Weekly Indictors” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The most significant benefit of these high frequency indicators ...
Friday, August 29, 2025

July real income and spending rebound, keeping the expansionary trends intact

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   - by New Deal democrat Last month I concluded: “ This was a very weak report, although not negative. If there were not distortions from t...
Thursday, August 28, 2025

Jobless claims suggest continuing, but resolving seasonality issues

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims have been relatively subdued for the past month. Some have suggested that this is a byprodu...
Wednesday, August 27, 2025

Manufacturers’ new durable goods orders is a bright spot

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   - by New Deal democrat No new significant economic data today, but yesterday we did get a look at manufacturers’ orders for durable goods...
Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Repeat home sales indexes provide final confirmation that the housing market is in deflation

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   - by New Deal democrat Last week YoY existing home prices increased only 0.2%. Since those were not seasonally adjusted, it was apparent ...
Monday, August 25, 2025

New home sales: the final shoe in the housing sector has dropped

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    - by New Deal democrat In this month’s report on  new home sales for July, the most important news was at the tail end, which I’ll get t...
Saturday, August 23, 2025

Weekly Indicators for August 18 - 22 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There were no big changes this week, but what continues to st...
Friday, August 22, 2025

The rebalancing of the housing market continues, as existing home price increases have halted, and inventory finally exceeds 2020 levels

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    - by New Deal democrat  The housing market, for all of its economic importance, tends to move as slow as molasses. This is especially t...
Thursday, August 21, 2025

Jobless claims suggest our recent good news has been more unresolved seasonal quirks

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims have been plagued by apparent unresolved seasonality in the past several years, post-pandem...
Wednesday, August 20, 2025

Real nonsupervisory payrolls and income in danger of tariff-driven stagnation

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at the “real” purchasing power of average working and middle class Americans. The July jobs repo...
Tuesday, August 19, 2025

Housing remains recessionary. Why hasn’t one happened yet?

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   - by New Deal democrat The post pandemic period has been an exception to many past relationships. This morning’s data on housing constru...
Monday, August 18, 2025

The muddied historical picture of PPI vs. CPI

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   - by New Deal democrat Forecasting has always been hard, and moreso since the supply chain issues of 2021-22 made reading the interest ra...