The Bonddad Blog

Still nerdy after all these years

Saturday, August 16, 2025

Weekly Indicators for August 11 - 15 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. This week I quantified the difference between commodity prices...
Friday, August 15, 2025

July industrial production: meh!

›
   - by New Deal democrat Industrial production is much less central to the US economic picture than it was before the “China shock,” since ...

July retail sales: consumers party on, for now

›
    - by New Deal democrat As per usual, retail sales are one of my favorite economic indicators, because in the past they have told us a lo...
Thursday, August 14, 2025

Producer prices for July (apparently) show the first significant negative effects of Tariff-palooza!

›
   - by New Deal democrat  Normally I don’t pay too much attention to producer prices, but occasionally they are very important - and today...

Initial and continuing claims continue to trend in opposite directions

›
   - by New Deal democrat  Obviously this morning’s PPI number was the most important report of the day. I want to get to that later, but f...
Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Shelter, tariffs, and “just-so” inflation indexes

›
   - by New Deal democrat In my note yesterday about the July CPI, I noted the transition from the trend where overall inflation ex-shelter ...
Tuesday, August 12, 2025

The consumer inflation transition continues, as shelter prices decelerate further, and other sectors show some re-acceleration

›
   - by New Deal democrat The story of this month’s CPI report is summed up in the first few graphs below: the shelter portion of the index ...
Monday, August 11, 2025

A decline in the immigrant labor force is not a valid reason for Wall Street’s optimism

›
   - by New Deal democrat   Despite some very soft employment and production data in the past several weeks, Wall Street has been on some...
Saturday, August 9, 2025

Weekly Indicators for August 4 - 8 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There is a strong divergence between the high frequency data, ...
Friday, August 8, 2025

Applying Prof. Edward Leamer’s pre-recession progression paradigm to the present

›
   - by New Deal democrat Twenty years ago Prof. Edward Leamer gave an important speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, WY, retreat called “Housi...
Thursday, August 7, 2025

The contradictory signs from initial and continuing jobless claims: what do they mean?

›
   - by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this week, the positive trend in initial jobless claims is one of the most important data point...
Wednesday, August 6, 2025

Dismal scenes from the July employment report

›
   - by New Deal democrat We’ve settled back in to our typical post-employment week lack of new data, so today is a good day to update the l...
Tuesday, August 5, 2025

“Recession Watch” instituted for US economy, as economically weighted ISM indexes indicate present contraction

›
   - by New Deal democrat Two months ago, in response to the new orders components of the economically weighted ISM manufacturing and servic...
‹
›
Home
View web version
Powered by Blogger.