Saturday, August 9, 2025

Weekly Indicators for August 4 - 8 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There is a strong divergence between the high frequency data, ...
Friday, August 8, 2025

Applying Prof. Edward Leamer’s pre-recession progression paradigm to the present

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   - by New Deal democrat Twenty years ago Prof. Edward Leamer gave an important speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, WY, retreat called “Housi...
Thursday, August 7, 2025

The contradictory signs from initial and continuing jobless claims: what do they mean?

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   - by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this week, the positive trend in initial jobless claims is one of the most important data point...
Wednesday, August 6, 2025

Dismal scenes from the July employment report

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   - by New Deal democrat We’ve settled back in to our typical post-employment week lack of new data, so today is a good day to update the l...
Tuesday, August 5, 2025

“Recession Watch” instituted for US economy, as economically weighted ISM indexes indicate present contraction

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   - by New Deal democrat Two months ago, in response to the new orders components of the economically weighted ISM manufacturing and servic...
Monday, August 4, 2025

“Recession watch” for economically weighted ISM indexes, and residential construction spending, continues

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   - by New Deal democrat  Since Friday featured the very salient jobs report - and its immediate fallout - I delayed reporting on two othe...
Saturday, August 2, 2025

Weekly Indicators for July 28 - August 1 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . In the middle of writing the post yesterday afternoon, the ne...
Friday, August 1, 2025

A note on ISM manufacturing and construction spending

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   - by New Deal democrat I don’t have time to write a complete report on the ISM manufacturing index for July, and the construction spendin...

July jobs report: especially with revisions, an awful report that screams near-recession

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   - by New Deal democrat Let me cut right to the chase in this first sentence: the only reason this employment report was not recessionary ...
Thursday, July 31, 2025

June personal income and spending: very weak as payback for front-running continues, meriting a yellow flag

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   - by New Deal democrat  In my conclusion last month, I wrote “ In the first two months of Q2, total real spending has declined by -0.8%,...
Wednesday, July 30, 2025

The bottom line in Q2 GDP; front-running, payback, and contrasting long leading indicators

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   - by New Deal democrat Today’s GDP report for Q2 was pretty much as we expected, i.e., payback from the front-running of import tariffs i...