Saturday, July 26, 2025

Weekly Indicators for July 21 - 25 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. With the continued pause in actual tariff increases, the data ...
Friday, July 25, 2025

Has consumer spending really been flagging in 2025?

›
   - by New Deal democrat There was no big economic news today, despite the report on durable goods, which declined -9.3% in June — after a ...
Thursday, July 24, 2025

New home sales continue rangebound, prices continue to decline, inventory continues to rise

›
 - by New Deal democrat This morning’s report on  new home sales for June indicated that sales continue to be rangebound, YoY prices continu...

Jobless claims: clear evidence of a break in trend to the downside

›
   - by New Deal democrat Last week I suggested that there might have been a break in the trend of higher YoY jobless claims, but there was ...
Wednesday, July 23, 2025

June existing home sales: a pause in the rebalancing of the housing market

›
   - by New Deal democrat  Housing data for June resumed this morning with existing home sales.  Let me start with my usual caveat:  althou...
Tuesday, July 22, 2025

Updating transport and consumer spending since Tariff-palooza!

›
   - by New Deal democrat New economic data will resume tomorrow. Since I haven’t updated the impact of Tariff-palooza! on transport and spe...
Monday, July 21, 2025

Real average wages and aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory workers for June

›
   - by New Deal democrat Once again there is a hiatus in the data for a couple of days. So let’s take a look at two of my favorite labor i...
Saturday, July 19, 2025

Weekly Indicators for July 14 - 18 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . A number of shorter term indicators - mainly stock prices and...
Friday, July 18, 2025

Housing construction continues to look recessionary

›
    - by New Deal democrat As we get towards the end of the month, the data from the important leading housing sector begins to be reported...
Thursday, July 17, 2025

Topline monthly increase in retail sales betrays weak underlying trend

›
   - by New Deal democrat Consumption leads employment, and retail sales are the most timely monthly indicator of consumption. Indeed, popul...

Jobless claims: the brightest spot in the entire economy right now

›
   - by New Deal democrat Probably the brightest spot in the entire economy right now is initial jobless claims. Contrary to the general the...
Wednesday, July 16, 2025

June industrial production: a mild coincident positive for the economy

›
   - by New Deal democrat Industrial production is much less central to the US economic picture than it was before the “China shock,” since ...

Producer prices, consumer prices, and tariffs

›
   - by New Deal democrat Much of the commentary on yesterday’s CPI report suggested that the tariff impacts were apparent. My own analysis ...
Tuesday, July 15, 2025

June CPI: an apparent point of transition

›
   - by New Deal democrat We are at somewhat of an inflection point as to consumer inflation. On the one hand, the post-pandemic inflationa...