The Bonddad Blog
Still nerdy after all these years
Saturday, July 19, 2025
Weekly Indicators for July 14 - 18 at Seeking Alpha
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- by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . A number of shorter term indicators - mainly stock prices and...
Friday, July 18, 2025
Housing construction continues to look recessionary
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- by New Deal democrat As we get towards the end of the month, the data from the important leading housing sector begins to be reported...
Thursday, July 17, 2025
Topline monthly increase in retail sales betrays weak underlying trend
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- by New Deal democrat Consumption leads employment, and retail sales are the most timely monthly indicator of consumption. Indeed, popul...
Jobless claims: the brightest spot in the entire economy right now
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- by New Deal democrat Probably the brightest spot in the entire economy right now is initial jobless claims. Contrary to the general the...
Wednesday, July 16, 2025
June industrial production: a mild coincident positive for the economy
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- by New Deal democrat Industrial production is much less central to the US economic picture than it was before the “China shock,” since ...
Producer prices, consumer prices, and tariffs
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- by New Deal democrat Much of the commentary on yesterday’s CPI report suggested that the tariff impacts were apparent. My own analysis ...
Tuesday, July 15, 2025
June CPI: an apparent point of transition
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- by New Deal democrat We are at somewhat of an inflection point as to consumer inflation. On the one hand, the post-pandemic inflationa...
Monday, July 14, 2025
Financial and commodity markets since Election Day
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- by New Deal democrat The post-jobs report data drought finally ends tomorrow. Today, let me take the opportunity to update some import...
Saturday, July 12, 2025
Weekly Indicators for July 7 - 11 at Seeking Alpha
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- by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Despite the warning signs in some of the recent monthly data t...
Friday, July 11, 2025
Putting markers down: what will it take for my forecast to activate a “recession watch”?
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- by New Deal democrat Our data drought won’t end until next Tuesday. In the meantime, let me follow up on a theme from my analysis of th...
Thursday, July 10, 2025
Jobless claims continue to suggest weakness but no downturn
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- by New Deal democrat We finally have some new data this week - the usual, jobless claims. Initial claims declined -5,000 for the week, ...
Wednesday, July 9, 2025
Why goods-producing employment is not flashing a danger signal for an economic downturn
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- by New Deal democrat During this week’s drought of new economic data, let’s continue taking a look at some important information from l...
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