Friday, June 6, 2025

May jobs report: about as poor as an expansiony report could be

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   - by New Deal democrat  Even before the new Administration took office in Washington, my focus had been on whether the economy would ha...
Thursday, June 5, 2025

YoY jobless claims still rangebound, but continuing claims at 3.5 year high

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims, particularly since it is one of two “quick and dirty” elements that ...
Wednesday, June 4, 2025

Economically weighted ISM services + manufacturing warrant Recession Watch

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   - by New Deal democrat Last month I concluded my report on the economically weighted ISM manufacturing and services indexes by writing “n...
Tuesday, June 3, 2025

April job openings, hires, quits, and layoffs: possibly the last month before the effects of Tariff-palooza! are felt

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   - by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey, which decomposes the employment market into openings, hires, quits, and layoffs, was reported th...
Monday, June 2, 2025

April construction spending continues slightly declining trend

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look now at construction spending for April. To cut to the chase, in all respects there was a contin...

May ISM manufacturing report shows continuing sectoral contraction, but still signals slow economic growth

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual, we started out the month with reports on both manufacturing and construction. I am posting separately on...
Saturday, May 31, 2025

Weekly Indicators for May 26 - 30 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . As I wrote about here this week, the supply chain effects of ...
Friday, May 30, 2025

April personal income and spending: the last positive front-running report?

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   - by New Deal democrat We finish the month of May with the very important personal income and spending for April, which gives us a thorou...
Thursday, May 29, 2025

Tariff-palooza! Implodes - for now; but is it already too late?

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   - by New Deal democrat Let me start this post by picking up where I left off yesterday. In yesterday’s post I suggested that an absolute ...

Jobless claims: unresolved post-pandemic seasonality appears once again

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   - by New Deal democrat One of the main reasons I include the last two years when I write about initial and continued jobless claims is th...
Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Updating the status of tariff-palooza!

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   - by New Deal democrat  There’s no significant new economic data today, so let’s take an updated look at the downstream effects on the s...
Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Repeat home sales through March confirm continued deceleration of price increases

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   - by New Deal democrat Last week the existing home sales report showed continued deceleration in YoY price increases to 1.8%, indicative ...
Monday, May 26, 2025

Memorial Day 2025: “that these dead shall not have died in vain”

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   - by New Deal democrat From Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address: “… [O]ur fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Li...