Saturday, May 24, 2025

Weekly Indicators for May 19 - 23 at Seeking Alpha (plus bonus charts)

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . The effects of Tariff-paloooza! are like a slowly building ts...
Friday, May 23, 2025

New home sales make 3 year high as price pressures for existing homes abate and inventory increases

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    - by New Deal democrat Since new and existing home sales were released just one day apart, I figured I would report on both of them to...
Thursday, May 22, 2025

Jobless claims: more of the same old, same old

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   - by New Deal democrat The story continues to be “same old, same old” with unemployment claims. Initial claims declined -2,000 last week ...
Wednesday, May 21, 2025

The Bond Market is Not Amused: on the importance of Moddy’s debt downgrade and the GOP budget bill

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   - by New Deal democrat Today let me address the GOP bust-out budget bill, and how that plays into Moody’s downgrade of US debt last week....
Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Have any impacts from Tariff-palooza! shown up in hard data yet?

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   - by New Deal democrat A few days ago Prof. Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser posted the below graphs comparing the time that hard vs. soft dat...
Monday, May 19, 2025

In Q1, bank conditions for loans appear to have darkened

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   - by New Deal democrat Until Thursday we are once again in a data drought this week. In the meantime, there are a few points I want to ad...
Sunday, May 18, 2025

Weekly Indicators for May 12 - 16 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . Changes due to Tariff-palooza! are happening very slowly. Mos...
Friday, May 16, 2025

Housing permits and starts still rangebound, but with units under construction down almost -20%, is the last shoe finally dropping?

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   - by New Deal democrat In April total permits (dark blue in the graph below) declined -69,000 on an annualized basis to 1.412 million, wh...
Thursday, May 15, 2025

Industrial and manufacturing production suggest front-running production has peaked

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  - by New Deal democrat The final datapoint for today is industrial production, including its important manufacturing component.  Last mont...

Real retail sales turn down in April, but continue to reflect consumers’ front-running of tariffs

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   - by New Deal democrat  Next up in today’s slew of data is retail sales. This is one of the most important indicators I look at, because...

Jobless claims: more of the same

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   - by New Deal democrat After a long data drought, there are many releases today. I’ll start with jobless claims. Initial claims were unch...
Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Average and aggregate nonsupervisory real April wages continued to fuel the consumer

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   - by New Deal democrat Now that we have April’s consumer inflation data, let’s update real wages for average American families. In April ...
Tuesday, May 13, 2025

April CPI: the second victorious report in a row

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   - by New Deal democrat Last month, I wrote that the March CPI report was the one we had been waiting for for the past three years. April...