Saturday, April 12, 2025

Weekly Indicators for April 7 - 11 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. In this time of exogenous shock to the economy caused by the ...
Friday, April 11, 2025

Real hourly and aggregate pay for nonsupervisory workers increased in March

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 - by New Deal democrat    With yesterday’s CPI report, we can update two important measures of ordinary American workers’ well-being, that...
Thursday, April 10, 2025

March CPI: this is the report we have been waiting for

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   - by New Deal democrat In March, w ith the exception of the usual problem child of shelter, almost every other component of consumer pri...

Jobless claims continue to reflect slowly expanding economy

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   - by New Deal democrat Before I deal with this morning’s March CPI report, let’s first update jobless claims. On a weekly basis, initial...
Wednesday, April 9, 2025

The “Major Questions Doctrine” and the T—-p tariffs

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   -by New Deal democrat The financial market thrill ride continues on. I considered writing up a post on bond yields this morning, but who ...
Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Daily T—-p tariff recession watch: no evidence of hard data deterioration to start

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   - by New Deal democrat Are the T—-p tariffs quickly putting the US into a recession?  As I wrote yesterday, there are two daily and two w...
Monday, April 7, 2025

Is a T—-p Tariff recession starting? My plan for real-time daily, weekly, and intramonth updates

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   - by New Deal democrat Normally on the Monday after the employment report, I do a deeper dig into its details. But today that seems a lit...
Saturday, April 5, 2025

Weekly Indicators for April 1 - 5 at Seeking Alpha, + an update of the “quick and dirty” recession indicator

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. You may be surprised to learn that despite the 10%+ stock mark...
Friday, April 4, 2025

March jobs report: possibly the last good report of the expansion

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   - by New Deal democrat  My question over the past year has been whether “decleration” would turn into “deterioration.” For a “soft land...
Thursday, April 3, 2025

Economically weighted ISM manufacturing + services on the cusp on yellow caution flag

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    - by New Deal democrat Because manufacturing is much less important to the economy than in the decades before the Millennium, the econom...

Jobless claims continue tame

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    - by New Deal democrat This week initial jobless claims declined -6,000 to 219,000. The four week moving average declined -1,250 to 223,...

“Those who cannot see must feel:” global trade and tariffs edition

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   - by New Deal democrat Before I get to today’s data, let me make this brief note on the tariffs that were announced late yesterday and th...
Wednesday, April 2, 2025

February JOLTS report: “soft landing” so far, but indications of further weakness ahead

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  - by New Deal democrat   Along with all the other reports, yesterday the JOLTS survey was updated for February. This survey decomposes the...
Tuesday, April 1, 2025

February construction spending: nominal vs. real makes all the difference

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   - by New Deal democrat Since the turn of the Millennium, a downturn in manufacturing has not been enough to tip the economy into recessio...