Saturday, April 5, 2025

Weekly Indicators for April 1 - 5 at Seeking Alpha, + an update of the “quick and dirty” recession indicator

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. You may be surprised to learn that despite the 10%+ stock mark...
Friday, April 4, 2025

March jobs report: possibly the last good report of the expansion

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   - by New Deal democrat  My question over the past year has been whether “decleration” would turn into “deterioration.” For a “soft land...
Thursday, April 3, 2025

Economically weighted ISM manufacturing + services on the cusp on yellow caution flag

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    - by New Deal democrat Because manufacturing is much less important to the economy than in the decades before the Millennium, the econom...

Jobless claims continue tame

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    - by New Deal democrat This week initial jobless claims declined -6,000 to 219,000. The four week moving average declined -1,250 to 223,...

“Those who cannot see must feel:” global trade and tariffs edition

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   - by New Deal democrat Before I get to today’s data, let me make this brief note on the tariffs that were announced late yesterday and th...
Wednesday, April 2, 2025

February JOLTS report: “soft landing” so far, but indications of further weakness ahead

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  - by New Deal democrat   Along with all the other reports, yesterday the JOLTS survey was updated for February. This survey decomposes the...
Tuesday, April 1, 2025

February construction spending: nominal vs. real makes all the difference

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   - by New Deal democrat Since the turn of the Millennium, a downturn in manufacturing has not been enough to tip the economy into recessio...

Heavy truck sales warrant a yellow caution flag

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    - by New Deal democrat After this morning’s contractionary ISM manufacturing report, it occurred to me to look at heavy truck sales to s...

ISM manufacturing index returns to contraction as the front-running of tariffs has ended

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   - by New Deal democrat [Note: I’ll report separately on construction spending, also released this morning] Although manufacturing is of d...
Monday, March 31, 2025

Why I am not concerned by the February increase in core PCE inflation

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   - by New Deal democrat The deluge of new monthly data starts tomorrow. Today there’s no significant data, so let me follow up on a point...
Sunday, March 30, 2025

Arctic sea ice makes new record low annual max

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    - by New Deal democrat On Sunday I occasionally post about topics of interest unrelated to economics. So today, let’s take note of a sig...
Saturday, March 29, 2025

Weekly Indicators for March 24 - 28 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The most important news in high frequency data was that we no...
Friday, March 28, 2025

Real income, spending, saving, and sales continue to be expansionary

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    - by New Deal democrat Real income and spending are two of the most important indicators of the well-being of the consumer. With the gen...
Thursday, March 27, 2025

Long leading indicators update: corporate profits in Q4 2024

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   - by New Deal democrat Corporate profits are a long leading indicator, as they typically turn down at least one year before the onset of ...

Jobless claims continue higher YoY, but not recessionary

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   - by New Deal democrat  This week’s look at initial jobless claims includes seasonal revisions made to the data for the last five years....