Saturday, February 1, 2025

Weekly Indicators for January 27 - 31 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Several of the trend indicators that had been languishing, n...
Friday, January 31, 2025

Personal income and spending for December: more “steady as she goes” but with late cycle characteristics

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   - by New Deal democrat The December personal income and spending report showed that for the huge consumption sector of the economy, “stea...
Thursday, January 30, 2025

Long leading components of GDP suggest continuing if sluggish expansion through 2025

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    - by New Deal democrat As per usual, my focus in reporting on GDP is not the headline number, but the aspects which serve as leading ind...

Continuing jobless claims trend telegraphs weak but still expanding economy

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   - by New Deal democrat I’ll report on the Q4 GDP release later this morning. But first, let’s get up to date on jobless claims. These hav...
Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Interstate COVID dashboard: first, preliminary report for the week of January 19

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  - by New Deal democrat In one of his first acts in office, T—-p effectively shut down the entire US public health apparatus, for all inten...
Tuesday, January 28, 2025

Repeat home sales indexes for November show YoY deceleration, m/m stabilizing

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning we got the final housing reports for the month, the repeat house price indexes from the FHFA and Case...
Monday, January 27, 2025

In December, the theme for new homes was “steady as she goes” in sales, price, and inventory trends

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   - by New Deal democrat To reiterate my theme from the past few months, Ive been looking at new and existing home sales more in tandem, wi...
Saturday, January 25, 2025

Weekly Indicators for January 20 - 24 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Seasonality continues to be an important issue in dealing wit...
Friday, January 24, 2025

Sales, prices, and inventory in existing home market all up YoY in December

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   - by New Deal democrat  There was some tepid good news as to existing home sales in December, which have been flat in the general range ...
Thursday, January 23, 2025

Jobless claims: seasonality and neutrality continue

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   - by New Deal democrat The week’s first meaningful data is jobless claims. These have been trending higher YoY, but with lots of seasonal...
Wednesday, January 22, 2025

The new Administration and the return to an Inflationary Era

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   - by New Deal democrat I don’t normally discuss movements in the stock and bond markets, but occasionally there are important paradigm sh...
Tuesday, January 21, 2025

The economic reasons why the Democrats lost in 2024

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    - by New Deal democrat There is no significant economic news until Thursday. In the meantime, today and tomorrow let me discuss a coupl...
Monday, January 20, 2025

Joe Biden: the last Institutionalist president

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   - by New Deal democrat  Over 5 years ago, I took a look at the 500 year history of the Roman Republic. In my penultimate discussion of i...