Thursday, December 26, 2024

Initial jobless claims continue neutral trend, while continuing claims make a 3 year high

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   - by New Deal democrat This Christmas week initial claims declined -1,000 to 219,000. The four week average rose 1,000 to 226,500. With t...
Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to all who celebrate!

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   - by New Deal democrat Last night we celebrated with the traditional Christmas Eve pastime of viewing “Die Hard.” Regular economic bloggi...
Monday, December 23, 2024

Sales of new and existing homes increased in November; declining price trend continues for the former, but pressures increase in the latter

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   - by New Deal democrat Ive been looking at new and existing home sales more in tandem recently, as we are looking for a rebalancing of t...
Saturday, December 21, 2024

Weekly Indicators for December 16 - 20 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . The yield curve is now almost entirely un-inverted, but in pa...
Friday, December 20, 2024

Personal income and spending continue their positive trend in November, but looking late cycle-ish

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   - by New Deal democrat Adjusted for inflation, both personal income and spending came in positive once again in November. But under the ...
Thursday, December 19, 2024

Jobless claims: with a dash of seasonality salt, trending towards weakness

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   - by New Deal democrat As expected, jobless claims declined from one week ago, as the delayed Thanksgiving week seasonality moved out of ...
Wednesday, December 18, 2024

The housing sector now hoists a red flag recession warning

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   - by New Deal democrat The very important construction data from the long leading housing sector was mixed this morning for November. Th...
Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Industrial production continues to slide

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    - by New Deal democrat Industrial production declined for the third month in a row in November, down -0.1%, while October was revised do...

Real retail sales on the cusp of breaking out of their multi-year doldrums

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   - by New Deal democrat Consumption leads employment, and as I reiterated yesterday real per capita retail sales has a history as a long l...
Monday, December 16, 2024

Updating the nonfinancial long leading indicators

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    - by New Deal democrat I haven’t “officially” updated my take on the long leading indicators - those that forecast a recession at least ...
Saturday, December 14, 2024

Weekly Indicators for December 9 - 13 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. While the short term forecast and nowcast have remained relat...
Friday, December 13, 2024

Good news on real aggregate payrolls, but an additional yellow flag on jobs

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   - by New Deal democrat With the update on inflation earlier this week, let’s take a look a real average wages and real aggregate payrolls...
Thursday, December 12, 2024

Jobless claims: seasonality strikes again

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   - by New Deal democrat As is so often the case this time of year, seasonality likely played havoc with this week’s new jobless claims. La...
Wednesday, December 11, 2024

November consumer inflation remains well-contained except for the two most lagging sectors of shelter and transportation services

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   - by New Deal democrat Let me pick up where I left off yesterday discussing trends in consumer prices. One thing I have done every month ...