Saturday, December 7, 2024

Weekly Indicators for December 2 - 6 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. This week whipsawed the data that was heavily influenced by Th...
Friday, December 6, 2024

November jobs report: the expected monthly rebound masks deeper declining trends

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   - by New Deal democrat  To understand this month’s jobs report, let’s start with last month’s, where I wrote that “ there were some sign...
Thursday, December 5, 2024

Jobless claims: neutral - with an extra grain of salt

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   - by New Deal democrat As I cautioned last weekend in my “Weekly Indicators” update, we have entered that period of the year where Holida...
Wednesday, December 4, 2024

ISM non-manufacturing shows that services continue to power the economy forward. Are they inflationary?

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   - by New Deal democrat Because services are roughly 3/4’s of the economy, I now pay a lot of attention to the economically weighted avera...
Tuesday, December 3, 2024

JOLTS report for October: continuing trend of deceleration has begun to pose a problem

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   - by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey parses the jobs market on a monthly basis more thoroughly than the headline employment numbers in...
Monday, December 2, 2024

ISM manufacturing remains weak, while construction spending continues to power along

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual, the month’s data begins with the ISM manufacturing index, and with a one month delay, construction spend...
Sunday, December 1, 2024

Weekly Indicators for November 26 - 30 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . Thanksgiving came in the 4th week of November this year vs. t...
Friday, November 29, 2024

Real personal income and spending for October were all good; no special cause for concern yet about inflation

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   - by New Deal democrat Let me finish catching up this week with a quick look at personal income and spending, which were reported on Wedn...
Wednesday, November 27, 2024

It’s not just corporate profits, the long leading housing sector is also under pressure

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   - by New Deal democrat I suspect that both hurricanes as well as mortgage rates somewhat distorted all of the housing reports for October...

The long leading indicator of corporate profit growth stalled in Q3

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   - by New Deal democrat Perhaps the most important economic news released so far this week was this morning’s update on Q3 corporate profi...

Jobless claims continue to signal moderate expansion

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   - by New Deal democrat Let me start to update this week’s data with jobless claims. Initial claims fell another -2,000 to 213,000, the lo...
Tuesday, November 26, 2024

On the Road

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   - by New Deal democrat I’m traveling this week, so light posting.  There was no significant economic news yesterday. I’ll take a look at ...
Sunday, November 24, 2024

Weekly Indicators for November 18 - 22 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . With the hurricane-induced weakness past, the short term fore...
Friday, November 22, 2024

October existing home sales: a pause, or possibly reversal, in the rebalancing trend

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   - by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s report on existing home sales indicated, at least for one month, a pause or even reversal in the previ...
Thursday, November 21, 2024

Initial claims are positive, while hurricane-adjusted continued claims are neutral

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   - by New Deal democrat This week’s jobless claims reflect a little more complex scenario than usual, because the hurricane effects have d...
Wednesday, November 20, 2024

What to look for if housing construction does forecast a recession

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   - by New Deal democrat No data today, but since it is mainly a housing week, let me pick up on a topic I discussed at the end of yesterda...