Saturday, November 16, 2024

Weekly Indicators for November 11 - 15 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . More the recent ‘same’ this week: short term and coincident i...
Friday, November 15, 2024

Production turns more negative

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   - by New Deal democrat Industrial and manufacturing production slid further in October, by -0.3% and -0.5% respectively. They are also d...

Real retail sales jump nicely, but we’re not out of the woods on consumption just yet

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   - by New Deal democrat Let me start with my usual reminder that  real retail sales is one of my favorite economic indicators, because it ...
Thursday, November 14, 2024

Jobless claims complete their reversion to pre-hurricane-disruptions trend

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial claims have now completely reverted to trend after their recent hurricane-induced blip. Initial claims ros...
Wednesday, November 13, 2024

October consumer inflation firms, driven - as usual - by shelter

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   - by New Deal democrat  Today’s CPI report for October generally showed stable monthly increases, but slight increases in YoY comparison...
Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Incomes, immigration, and the election

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    - by New Deal democrat On Friday I wrote about how the Fed likely contributed, via hurting aspiring homeowners, to the outcome of the E...
Monday, November 11, 2024

On Remembrance Day

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   - by New Deal democrat Today in the US is officially Veterans Day, in which we salute the service of all veterans. But it started - and s...
Saturday, November 9, 2024

Weekly Indicators for November 4 - 8 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . Surprisingly, corporate profits have come in relatively ligh...
Friday, November 8, 2024

How the Fed helped Doom the Democrats

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   - by New Deal democrat This is not a formal post about Tuesday’s election. But with the benefit of “revealed preference” a/k/a 20/20 hind...
Thursday, November 7, 2024

Jobless claims: back to almost completely normal and neutral

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    - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims continued their return to normalcy this week, as they increased 3,000 to 221,000. The four...
Wednesday, November 6, 2024

The economically weighted ISM average indicates economy expanding nicely, but likely in latter stage of the cycle

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   - by New Deal democrat [I was busy doing my civic duty the past few days. I’ll have something to say about the election at some point lat...
Saturday, November 2, 2024

Weekly Indicators for October 28 - November 1 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . There’s always some noise in the high frequency data, and th...
Friday, November 1, 2024

ISM manufacturing poor again in October

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual, next week there will be a dearth of economic data, so I’ll report on construction spending then. In the ...

October jobs report: Milton mayhem!

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   - by New Deal democrat Well, I warned you . . . . I expected a downdraft from the hurricanes, especially Milton, and also the Boeing stri...
Thursday, October 31, 2024

September personal income and spending: another positive report across the board

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   - by New Deal democrat The monthly personal income and spending report is now the most important report of all, except for jobs. That’s ...