Saturday, October 19, 2024

Weekly Indicators for October 14 - 18 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . As per the analysis of monthly data that I wrote about this w...
Friday, October 18, 2024

Despite Helene, housing permits and starts stabilized in September; but construction based yellow flag remains

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   - by New Deal democrat Much of the data that is being released, like yesterday’s jobless claims data, has to be viewed with an asterisk ...
Thursday, October 17, 2024

Real retail sales increased in September, but concern - and their yellow flag - continue

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   - by New Deal democrat A periodic reminder , real retail sales is one of my favorite economic indicators, because it tells us so much abo...

The shallow downturn in industrial production continues

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   - by New Deal democrat Before I get to the (relatively) good news in retail sales, let’s take a look at the bad news from industrial prod...

Initial claims: *maybe* the onset of a concerning trend, but there are distortions galore

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   - by New Deal democrat As I indicated yesterday, today’s initial jobless claims report was particularly challenging, due to hurricane eff...
Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Why hurricane effects and funky seasonal adjustments will make tomorrow’s initial cliams report particularly fun

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    - by New Deal democrat The drought in new economic data continues through today. We’ll make up for it all at once tomorrow with jobless ...
Tuesday, October 15, 2024

Household balance sheets are in good shape

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 - by New Deal democrat   One of my fundamentals-based systems for monitoring the economy is to look at the health of household balance she...
Monday, October 14, 2024

For Indigenous Persons Day: a review of “A Brave and Cunning Prince” by James Horn

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   - by New Deal democrat Recently I read the above entitled book, and found it fascinating. Below are excerpts from an online book review, ...
Saturday, October 12, 2024

Weekly Indicators for October 7 - 11 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha .  The long end of the yield curve has steepened, and that mea...
Friday, October 11, 2024

September producer prices almost entirely benign; very little upward pressure in the pipeline

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   - by New Deal democrat Sometimes producer prices lead consumer prices; sometimes they don’t - but in the sense that sometimes there is no...
Thursday, October 10, 2024

September consumer inflation: headline closing in on the Fed’s target, shelter decelerates, medical services become a problem child

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   - by New Deal democrat  Today’s CPI report for September came in almost exactly as I suggested it would in my preview yesterday. To wit:...

Initial jobless claims: welcome back to hurricane season

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   - by New Deal democrat Step away from the ledge, everybody; and pay no attention to the DOOOMers, who are surely out in force this mornin...