Saturday, October 5, 2024

Weekly Indicators for September 30 - October 4 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . There was a slight fading of several indicators in the short...
Friday, October 4, 2024

September: very much a “soft landing” jobs report. But will the Fed use this to fall behind the curve again?

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   - by New Deal democrat  Especially in view of the relative weakness in the jobs report for the past few months, my focus continues to be...
Thursday, October 3, 2024

The ISM services index, measuring 75% of the economy, sounds an ‘all clear’ - for now, anyway

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   - by New Deal democrat Recently I have paid much more attention to the ISM services index. That’s because, since the turn of the  Millenn...

Jobless claims: not so good as the headline, but not so bad either

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims will be up against some very challenging comparisons for the next 6 months or so, due to so...
Wednesday, October 2, 2024

Are manufacturing and construction in a synchronous downturn? If so, that’s Trouble

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   - by New Deal democrat I wanted to follow up on a point I made yesterday: although manufacturing is no longer a big enough slice of the U...
Tuesday, October 1, 2024

JOLTS report for August shows a jobs market decelerating to about average for the previous two expansions

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   - by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey parses the jobs market on a monthly basis more thoroughly than the headline employment numbers in...

Manufacturing remains in contraction, with construction on the brink

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   - by New Deal democrat  This month we started the month with not just the usual two important reports on the leading sectors of  manufa...
Monday, September 30, 2024

The real nowcast for the economy as of the end of Q3

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   - by New Deal democrat On Friday I highlighted the sharp positive revision to the personal saving rate.  That was a byproduct of a simila...
Saturday, September 28, 2024

Weekly Indicators for September 23 - 27 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha . With the Fed cutting rates, those long leading indicators which...
Friday, September 27, 2024

Personal income and spending hits a triple, plus a big positive surprise revision

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   -by New Deal democrat  The monthly personal income and spending report is now the most important report of all, except for jobs. That’s...
Thursday, September 26, 2024

Weekly jobless claims: good news and ‘meh’ news

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   - by New Deal democrat I’ve been writing for the past number of weeks that we were approaching the acid test for the hypothesis that unre...
Wednesday, September 25, 2024

The rebalancing of the housing market continues, as new home sales and existing home prices are consistent with the “soft landing” scenario

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   - by New Deal democrat With this morning’s release of new home sales, we have all of the important housing data releases for the month. S...